Indonesia is bracing for a stronger-than-normal dry season as the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warns that a powerful El Niño is expected to reduce rainfall across the country between July and October. The agency reports a 98% probability that the climate phenomenon will reach a strong category in 2026, with potential impacts persisting for nine to 12 months. This overlap between El Niño and the peak dry season poses immediate risks to agricultural output, food security, and regional economic stability.
Why the current dry season poses economic risks
The primary concern for authorities is the convergence of El Niño with the peak dry season. BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated on July 2 that this synchronization will lead to rainfall levels significantly lower than normal, necessitating heightened preparedness across multiple sectors.
Regions south of the equator, including Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, and southern Papua, are expected to see the most significant declines in rainfall. The resulting water shortages could disrupt crop growth, lower agricultural productivity, and lead to widespread crop failures. BMKG warns that these agricultural disruptions may drive up commodity prices, placing upward pressure on regional inflation.
Did You Know? The BMKG has identified a 98% probability that the current El Niño event will reach a strong category, with the agency emphasizing that the timing of the phenomenon—specifically its overlap with the dry season—is more critical than its total duration.
How authorities are preparing for climate impacts
To mitigate the effects of the drought, the BMKG has urged both central and regional governments to implement proactive measures. For the agricultural sector, recommendations include adjusting planting schedules, improving irrigation efficiency, and integrating climate forecasts directly into farming decisions.
Urban authorities are being encouraged to expand public transportation, improve emissions controls, and establish low-emission zones to manage the air quality risks associated with drier conditions. The BMKG also recommends that the government strengthen water reserves through weather modification operations and adopt more adaptive management for reservoirs to secure supplies for households and hydropower generation.
Expert Insight: The economic stakes here are high because climate risk is no longer a peripheral environmental issue; it is a core component of fiscal stability. By integrating these projections into investment planning, the government is attempting to preempt the inflationary pressures that typically follow agricultural yield losses. The success of these mitigation efforts will likely depend on how quickly regional authorities can pivot from traditional resource management to the climate-adaptive strategies now being recommended.
What happens next during the dry season?
As the dry season progresses through October, the risk of forest and land fires is expected to increase significantly. Drier conditions often lead to degraded air quality, which the BMKG warns could result in a higher incidence of respiratory illnesses and heat-related diseases among the population.
A possible next step for the government involves accelerating energy diversification to reduce reliance on hydropower if water levels in reservoirs continue to drop. Officials have stressed that long-term economic stability will require embedding climate risk assessments into all future economic and investment planning to safeguard productivity against the volatility of future climate patterns.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which regions are most at risk during the dry season?
The BMKG expects the most significant rainfall declines in regions south of the equator, specifically Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, and southern Papua.
How does the dry season impact food prices?
Reduced rainfall leads to water shortages and potential crop failures, which disrupt food production. This reduction in supply can drive up commodity prices and contribute to higher regional inflation.
What measures is the BMKG recommending to the government?
The agency has advised adjusting planting schedules, improving irrigation efficiency, strengthening fire prevention in high-risk areas, and conducting weather modification operations to bolster water reserves.
How do you think your local community can best prepare for the potential impacts of a prolonged dry season?
