England’s progression to the World Cup knockout stages depends on their upcoming match against Panama. According to Planet Football, a victory will secure England’s advancement, though their specific opponent varies significantly based on whether they finish first, second, or third in Group L.
What happens if England wins Group L?
If England secures the top spot in Group L, they will enter the knockout stages as one of the group winners. In this scenario, they are scheduled to play one of the eight best third-place teams. This opponent will originate from Group E, H, I, J, or K.
Mathematical analysis provided by Planet Football suggests a 66.67% chance that England will face a team from Group K if they qualify as a third-place team. Other probabilities include a 22.83% chance of facing Group I, 5.86% for Group E, 4.04% for Group J, and 0.61% for Group H.
Likely opponents for a group winner
If England tops the group, the most probable opponents are Portugal, DR Congo, or Uzbekistan. Planet Football notes that Uzbekistan is unlikely to be the opponent, as they currently sit on zero points with a -7 goal difference.
Portugal currently holds second place in Group K, trailing leaders Colombia. DR Congo must defeat Uzbekistan to secure their status as a third-place team. While there is a slim possibility DR Congo could finish second if Portugal loses and improves their goal difference, the most likely path involves the third-place bracket.
England fans should note that Group I is a “scenario to avoid.” According to the report, Group I is one of the toughest paths. Senegal currently occupies the third spot in that group and faces Iraq in their final match. If Senegal wins and improves their goal difference, they are likely to progress.
Who will England face if they finish second?
The path for a runner-up is more direct. If England finishes second in Group L, they will face the runner-up from Group K. This calculation eliminates the complexity of the third-place tiebreakers.
As it stands, Portugal is the runner-up in Group K, sitting two points behind Colombia. If Portugal defeats Colombia in their final group match, England would face the South American side. However, if Portugal loses and DR Congo secures a high enough goal difference against Uzbekistan, DR Congo could take the second-place spot instead.
Can England still finish third in the group?
A third-place finish remains a mathematical possibility for Thomas Tuchel’s side. For this to occur, England would need to lose their final game against Panama, while Croatia would simultaneously need to defeat Ghana.
In this specific scenario, England would need a goal difference inferior to Ghana’s to fall into the third-place slot. According to Planet Football, England would likely face the winner of Group K in this situation. That match would be held at the Kansas City Stadium, with Colombia currently leading the group ahead of their final match against Portugal.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is England’s next match?
England’s final group stage match is against Panama.
Where will England play their knockout match?
If England wins the group, they are scheduled to play at the Atlantic Stadium in Georgia on July 1. If they finish third, the match could be held at the Kansas City Stadium.
Who is England’s most likely opponent?
If England wins the group, the most likely opponents are Portugal, DR Congo, or Uzbekistan, depending on third-place qualifying math.
What do you think England’s chances are of winning the tournament? Let us know in the comments below, and subscribe to our newsletter for more World Cup updates.
