Perhaps the most important question is, why is it that the number of positive tests no longer decreases? Certainly because no corona rules were relaxed three to two weeks ago. For example, since this week, a visit to the museum has been allowed again, but that is too recently to be reflected in the figures.
“With fewer measures than now, the downward trend would have continued in May,” says Rosendaal. According to him, the stagnation is probably due to people’s behavior. For example, if fewer people work from home, this is reflected in the number of infections.
Another possible explanation is the positive reports on vaccines. For example, pharmaceutical Pfizer claimed 12 days ago that their vaccine developed with BioNTech is effective in 90 percent of the cases. “Perhaps this has given people a sense of light at the end of the tunnel,” suggests Rosendaal. And that some have become less careful as a result.
In the end, according to him, little was needed to get the R-number above 1 th. The lowest point was 0.83 at the end of October, which means that one hundred people together infect 83 others on average. Regardless of what factors have all played a role in the past two weeks, the most important thing now is that the increase will not continue.