Europe faces an undeclared war waged through hybrid attacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns linked to Moscow, according to Heather Grabbe, Senior Fellow at the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel. Speaking to TVP World, Grabbe warned that incidents spanning arson and electoral interference have become a normal reality for European nations over the past four or five years as the conflict in Ukraine continues.
Germany Points to Moscow Over Leipzig Drone Incident
German officials announced that evidence gathered at the scene links Russia to an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport last month. Despite the finding, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul insisted his country is not at war. The revelation prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to state that Russia is escalating tensions across the entire region while European Union member states maintain support for Ukraine.
Scaling Hybrid Operations Below the NATO Threshold
Russia is already waging war against Western countries rather than merely preparing for one, according to Lesia Ogryzko, Director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center. During a briefing at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center, Ogryzko reported that the Russian Federation has launched 300 attacks below the threshold of an official NATO response since 2022. The Sahaidachnyi Security Center documented these military provocations, cyberattacks, and sabotage operations through an online tracker titled The Everywhere War. Poland, Estonia, Germany, the United States, Lithuania, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia have absorbed the largest share of these hostile actions.
Did you know? According to research from the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, Russian hybrid operations involve jamming GPS signals, recruiting saboteurs, damaging critical energy cables, and testing air defense systems with drones.
Escalation Scenarios and Strategic Objectives
Moscow’s hybrid campaign represents a deliberate preparation of a future operational theater for potential full-scale aggression, according to the analytical center’s study titled The War That ‘Does Not Exist’: Russian Sub-Threshold Aggression Against Europe and Scenarios for Its Escalation. The research outlines primary scenarios for open armed conflict, including the Suwałki Gambit to isolate the Baltic states by seizing the corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus, alongside a full-scale regional war across land, air, sea, cyber, and space domains. Analysts emphasize that Moscow’s main political objective is inflicting a military-political defeat on NATO as a collective security institution rather than simply annexing territory.
Transatlantic Tensions Over G20 Inclusion
Diplomatic friction has also emerged over international forums. Heather Grabbe noted that the decision by the administration of US President Donald Trump to invite Russia to a meeting of G20 representatives will remain a major issue ahead of the next G20 summit in Florida this December. Grabbe described the invitation as upsetting for European members of NATO, especially given that Russia remains a full member of the G20 despite Western isolation efforts following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. By contrast, Russia was suspended from the G8 in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is hybrid warfare in the context of Europe?
Hybrid warfare involves non-traditional hostile actions—including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage of energy infrastructure, and drone provocations—waged below the threshold of conventional military conflict.
Which countries have experienced the most Russian sub-threshold attacks?
According to research from the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, Poland, Estonia, Germany, the United States, Lithuania, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia have recorded the highest number of attacks since 2022.
Is Russia still a member of the G20?
Yes, Russia remains a full member of the G20, though it was suspended from the G8 in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea.
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