Europe’s Aviation Fuel Crisis: A Looming Threat to Travel
European airlines are facing a growing crisis as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupt the supply of jet fuel. Airlines are appealing to the European Union for emergency measures, including potential joint purchasing of fuel and temporary suspension of carbon taxes, to mitigate the impact. The situation is particularly concerning as Europe relies heavily on the Gulf region for its jet fuel supply.
The Middle East Conflict’s Impact on Fuel Supply
The conflict has led to closures of airspace and, critically, the potential closure of the Strait of Ormuz, a vital chokepoint for oil tankers. This disruption is driving up prices, which have more than doubled since the start of the conflict. The Airports Council International Europe (ACI) has warned that Europe could face a systemic shortage of jet fuel within three weeks.
Portugal is particularly vulnerable, importing over 60% of its aviation fuel and relying on the Gulf for a significant portion of that. Analysis suggests Portugal could exhaust its jet fuel reserves within four months if current disruptions continue.
Airline Responses: Cancellations and Capacity Reductions
Lufthansa Group, which includes Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian Airlines, and others, has already extended the suspension of flights to several Middle Eastern destinations, including Dubai, Tel Aviv, and Abu Dhabi, through October. The airline is considering reducing capacity by 2.5% to 5% by grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Ryanair has cautioned about a potential fuel shortage in Europe beginning in May and June if the conflict persists. BP has issued notices to airmen (NOTAMs) alerting customers to potential fuel restrictions at certain Italian airports.
EU Intervention and Potential Solutions
Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing major European carriers like Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and EasyJet, has requested the EU to consider several emergency measures. These include:
- Joint purchasing of jet fuel
- Temporary suspension of the EU’s carbon market for aviation
- Suspension of certain taxes and fees
- Releasing strategic fuel reserves
The EU is evaluating these requests, recognizing the critical importance of aviation to the European economy and tourism sector. Tourism contributed €34 billion to the Portuguese economy in 2024 alone, and European airports handled over 73 million passengers in 2025.
Refinery Closures Add to the Pressure
The situation is exacerbated by the closure of refineries in Western Europe, further straining the supply of jet fuel. Countries with domestic production or larger stockpiles, like Poland, Greece, and Ireland, are better positioned to weather the crisis.
Portugal’s Unique Challenges
Portugal relies on its single refinery in Sines for 75% of its jet fuel needs, with imports making up the remaining 25%. The Sines refinery was closed for maintenance at the end of 2025, meaning imports are crucial starting in mid-May. If supply from the Middle East remains restricted, Portugal’s fuel stocks could rapidly deplete.
FAQ: Navigating the Aviation Fuel Crisis
Q: How will this affect my flights?
A: Passengers may experience flight cancellations or increased ticket prices due to higher fuel costs. Airlines are working to minimize disruptions, but the situation is evolving.
Q: What is the EU doing to address the crisis?
A: The EU is considering emergency measures requested by airlines, including joint fuel purchasing and tax suspensions.
Q: Which countries are most at risk?
A: Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Denmark are identified as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on Middle Eastern fuel supplies.
Q: Will fuel prices continue to rise?
A: Experts predict that jet fuel prices will remain elevated for the remainder of the year due to ongoing supply constraints.
Did you know? Lufthansa expects record revenues from Asian routes this year, benefiting from reduced capacity from Gulf carriers.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about your flight status directly with your airline and consider travel insurance that covers disruptions due to unforeseen circumstances.
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