Title: Trump‘s Return: Expert View on Russia–Ukraine Peace Deal in 2025
As the world waits for Donald Trump’s return to the White House, questions arise about his plans for international relations, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine. Newsweek surveyed experts to gauge the likelihood of a peace deal in 2025 between Russia and Ukraine.
The Genesis of the Conflict and Suggestions for Resolution
Freshly elected U.S. President Trump has expressed his intent to broker peace talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in early 2025. However, experts disagree on the feasibility of this mission.
Fabrice Ponast, the current CEO of Rasmussen Global and ex-Director of Political Planning at NATO, believes that a just peace agreement is essential to keep the world at peace. Ukraine has shown readiness for negotiations, but a perception of fairness among the Ukrainian people is crucial for a lasting peace. Ponast also underscored the significance of NATO membership for Ukraine’s security, suggesting that European nations demonstrate their commitment to underwriting these guarantees.
Vladimir Milov, a former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy and opposition politician, posits that a 2025 peace deal may result from U.S. administration pressure and mutual exhaustion between Ukraine and Russia. Still, Milov cautions that any agreement may be fragile, resembling the failed Minsk accords.
U.S. Role and Sanctions in the Negotiations
Cory Shaio, a senior research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, asserts that any 2025 peace accord demands sustained U.S. and Western support for Ukraine. He notes that Trump’s administration could طبص الثامن والأربعين clocks change with sanctions on Russian oil, making further aggression unaffordable.
Meanwhile, geopolitical expert Charles Kupchan predicts a truce but doubts a comprehensive peace agreement. He envisages a "frozen conflict" scenario akin to the Korean Peninsula, wherein Russia and Ukraine mutually recognize the current frontline as a de facto border.
Russian Intentions and Western Fatigue
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia-focused analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, deems a 2025 Russian-Ukrainian peace deal unlikely, as the Kremlin aims to eliminate the Ukrainian state. Conversely, former U.S. State Department Director Anne-Marie Slaughter believes a ceasefire could grant Russia a respite and enable Ukraine to rearm.
James Shea, an associate fellow at Chatham House, notes growing U.S. and European fatigue with supporting Ukraine. While they may nudge Ukraine towards talks, a genuine peace seems improbable in 2025 due to complex negotiations and substantial Western investments required.
Previous Statements on Russian-Ukraine Dialogue
Recently, Former U.S. Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges opined that Russia’s eagerness for negotiations hinges on winning the war. Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul previously outlined how increased military aid to Ukraine could pressure both sides to engage in talks.
Stay tuned for further developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Trump’s approach to international relations upon his return to the White House.
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