Africa’s Coastline Under Siege: Record Sea Level Rise and the El Niño Connection
Africa’s coastal communities are facing an escalating crisis as sea levels rise at an alarming rate, a trend significantly worsened by the recent 2023-2024 El Niño event. New research reveals a dramatic acceleration in sea level rise along the African coastline, threatening millions of people and vital infrastructure.
A 73% Surge in Sea Level Rise
Between 2009 and 2024, sea levels around the African continent increased by 73%. This surge is largely attributed to the 2023-2024 El Niño, which contributed 2.3 centimeters (0.9 inches) to global sea level rise in just two years – representing 19% of the total increase observed over the past 32 years.
The most significant impacts have been observed in the western Indian Ocean and the eastern central Atlantic Ocean. Researchers utilized satellite data, computer models, and statistical methods to analyze these changes, discovering that over 70% of the sea level increase was due to stored ocean heat, quadrupling the typical levels seen during El Niño events.
Accelerating Trends and Historical Context
While sea levels have been steadily rising globally for decades due to increasing global temperatures, the rate of increase is accelerating. The rate of rise more than doubled from 0.06 inches per year during much of the 20th century to 0.14 inches per year between 2006 and 2015.
The African coastline experienced a marked shift in 2009, with the rate of sea level rise jumping from 2.7 millimeters (0.11 inches) per year to 4.7 mm (0.18 inches) per year. The 2023-2024 El Niño specifically caused a 27 mm (1.06 inch) rise, exceeding the previous El Niño benchmark of 19.2 mm (0.76 inches) set during the 1997-1998 event.
Why This Matters: A Continent at Risk
Africa’s extensive coastline, stretching approximately 18,950 miles (30,500 km), is particularly vulnerable. The oceans surrounding the continent are warming and rising faster than the global average, putting over 200 million coastal residents and critical infrastructure in major cities like Lagos and Dar es Salaam at risk.
These cities, the largest population centers in West and East Africa respectively, are facing increasing threats. The study emphasizes the danger to monitoring and adaptation measures, especially considering that the continent’s 38 coastal countries rely heavily on the ocean for both food and economic security.
Researchers are working to differentiate between long-term warming trends driven by the burning of fossil fuels and short-term weather patterns like El Niño. Their findings indicate that Africa’s low-lying deltas and small island states are most at risk, facing a convergence of challenges including flooding, land subsidence, and declining ocean productivity.
What Can Be Done? Mitigation and Adaptation
Scientific studies like these are crucial for informing mitigation planning. While protective measures like sea walls can offer some defense, managed retreat from coastal areas is also being considered as a strategy.
Even eliminating pollution today won’t immediately halt sea level rise, as heat already trapped within the ocean is driving melting in Greenland and Antarctica. However, decisive action is still necessary.
FAQ: Sea Level Rise in Africa
Q: How much has sea level risen in Africa recently?
A: Between 2009 and 2024, sea levels around Africa rose by 73%, with the 2023-2024 El Niño contributing 2.3 centimeters (0.9 inches) in just two years.
Q: Which areas of Africa are most affected?
A: The western Indian Ocean and the eastern central Atlantic Ocean are experiencing the most significant impacts.
Q: What is driving this increase in sea level?
A: A combination of long-term global warming and short-term climate patterns like El Niño are contributing to the rise, with stored ocean heat being a major factor.
Q: What can be done to address this issue?
A: Mitigation planning, protective infrastructure, and managed retreat are all potential strategies. Reducing global emissions is crucial for long-term solutions.
Did you know? The 2023-2024 El Niño produced the largest detrended sea level anomaly on record (27 mm), exceeding even the 1997-1998 event.
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