Intensifying El Niño conditions will push temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C in parts of Malaysia and trigger extreme weather swings ranging from drier conditions to flooding, according to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang and Universiti Malaya meteorologist Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah.
El Niño Peak Threatens Record Temperatures
The developing weather phenomenon is forecast to peak toward the end of the year before weakening early next year. According to Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang, the system could develop into an extreme El Niño, potentially stronger than the 1997/98 and 2015/16 episodes.
Global warming trends amplify these risks. Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang notes that the world is likely to experience much hotter conditions, pointing to this year or next year as potential candidates for the warmest years on record.
Did you know? El Niño suppresses convection and reduces cloud formation, allowing more solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface and push temperatures higher, as explained by Universiti Malaya meteorologist Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah.
Regional Weather Disparities: Floods vs. Droughts
While parts of the country experienced increased rainfall in June and July due to El Niño’s influence over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia, the system’s progression will yield stark regional contrasts.
Southern Sumatra, western Kalimantan, and southern Sarawak face wetter conditions later in the year, bringing risks of flooding. Conversely, northern Sarawak and Sabah confront drier conditions that heighten the risk of forest fires and haze.
Rainfall totals could drop during the northeast monsoon. According to Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah, rainfall may fall 10% to 20% lower between October and December along the east coast, while Sabah and Sarawak will see reduced rainfall between January and February.
Critical Temperature Windows
Malaysia has yet to experience constant temperatures above 37°C or prolonged heatwaves. However, Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang warns that risk levels will likely increase in the coming months, potentially pushing temperatures above 40°C.
Northern Peninsular Malaysia stands particularly vulnerable. Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah projects that northern areas could experience temperatures ranging between 37°C and 40°C during February and March.
Impacts on Water Resources and Public Health
Prolonged heat and drier conditions threaten critical sectors nationwide. Experts warn of consequences for water resources, agricultural production, food security, and public health.
To mitigate domestic shortages, Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah urges authorities to conserve water in dams now. Proactive storage is essential to ensure sufficient supplies for domestic use when evaporation increases between February and April.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the current El Niño phenomenon peak?
Experts forecast the weather phenomenon will peak toward the end of the year before weakening early next year.
Which regions face the highest risk of extreme heat?
Northern Peninsular Malaysia could experience temperatures reaching between 37°C and 40°C in February and March, according to projections from Universiti Malaya.
How will El Niño affect rainfall in Malaysia?
Impacts vary by region: southern Sarawak may see wetter conditions and risks of flooding, while the east coast could see 10% to 20% lower rainfall between October and December.
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