Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, securing 47.05% of the valid votes against 45.13% for the incumbent.
The result contradicted polls that had indicated a slight advantage for Lula. The two candidates will face each other again in the second round on October 25.
International Media Reactions
Global news outlets characterized the result as a surprise. Argentina’s Clarín called it a “surprising and dramatic turnaround,” while France’s Le Monde noted that polls underestimated the right’s strength, suggesting Lula “paid the price of voter discontent.” The Reuters news agency stated that the senator “exceeded expectations,” and El País described the result as a “crucial victory” for the right-wing wave in Latin America.
The New York Times described the vote as “crucial” and the “biggest test so far for the rising right in Latin America.” The BBC reported that Flávio Bolsonaro exceeded expectations and noted that some other defeated presidential candidates were right-wing alternatives. El País added that the political heir of Jair Bolsonaro led the count from start to finish against one of the most influential politicians in Latin America, who governed Brazil for 11 years.
British publications focused on the path to the second round. However, Al Jazeera reported a counter-analysis from Reuters suggesting Bolsonaro may have already captured the “useful vote” against the PT, which could limit his growth potential before the final vote.
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Influence of the United States and Donald Trump
The role of U.S. President Donald Trump was a recurring theme in international coverage.
According to O Globo, Reuters noted that a victory for Flávio would expand a wave of right-wing victories in Latin America aligned with Trump. Conversely, Lula’s reelection could create “a headache for Washington” due to conflicts over security and trade.
Voter Discontent and Campaign Dynamics
Analysts highlighted a disconnected electorate. Clarín pointed to an abstention rate of about 21%, interpreting it as a “punishment vote” from low-income voters burdened by debt.
The campaign was marked by a lack of substantive content, including the absence of main candidates in televised debates and the dominance of corruption scandals involving Banco Master. The Washington Post framed the upcoming second round as a “kind of revenge,” noting that four years ago, Lula defeated Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, by the smallest margin in the country’s history.
Right Wing Secures Major Legislative Gains
The right wing also saw significant gains in the Congress and state government races. Of the 54 senators elected, 34 belong to the right or far-right. Andre Pagliarini, a historian at Louisiana State University, told Al Jazeera that the legislative results show the Bolsonarista project has a deeper popular base than previously thought.
Regarding the regional shift, La Nación reported that the elections could consolidate an ideological change in South America. It noted that while Flávio Bolsonaro began the count with strong momentum, votes from the Northeast confirmed a tight second round.
The New York Times reported that Flávio frequently praises the U.S. president and promised to join a U.S.-led coalition against drug cartels. Meanwhile, Lula described Trump’s tariffs on Brazil—imposed after Trump called the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt”—as an attempt to influence the elections, claiming the Bolsonaro family is “eager to please Washington at the expense of Brazil.”