Another summer of extreme weather has destroyed and damaged homes, cut off communities and, in the most tragic cases, left families mourning their loved ones, according to experts Lain White, Bill Gry, Julia Becker, Liam Wotherspoon and Melanie Mark-Shadbolt.
New Zealand is one of the most natural-hazard-exposed countries on Earth, with severe weather being common. Major cities are situated in low-lying areas and steep landscapes are prone to landslips. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storm surges, tsunami, drought and wildfires add to these risks and are likely to pose an even greater risk as the climate continues to change.
Amid January’s storms, there was public grief for those who perished and gratitude for the emergency responders, marae and neighbours who stepped in to aid. The events have reignited discussion about learning from disasters, the role of science, and reducing harm before the next event.
Lesson 1: Hazards are natural. Disasters are social.
Natural hazards can emerge slowly or arrive suddenly. Disasters occur when hazards intersect with people, infrastructure and decisions, making them social processes. How information is communicated, decisions are made, and responsibilities are shared directly shape public trust and how communities cope, and recover.
Research following Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 found that public trust is fragile after disasters, distress is widespread, and communities are sensitive to communication. Misinformation is to be expected, but can be countered by communicating what is known – and what is not known – clearly and authoritatively.
Lesson 2: Growth can reduce risk – or lock it in
Communities and decision-makers must think differently about risk management and growth. Avoiding future liabilities requires evidence-based approaches that account for natural hazards and climate risks. This may involve steering development toward safer areas or investing in resilient infrastructure.
Regulation can help, but providing communities and real-estate markets with clearer risk information can also enable risk reduction. Relocating communities or retrofitting protection are costly, making proactive spatial planning linked with hazard modelling a smarter long-term option.
Lesson 3: How we frame extreme events matters
For decades, significant natural hazard events in New Zealand have been described as rare or “once in a generation.” This language doesn’t reflect the current reality. The National Climate Change Risk Assessment for New Zealand explains that climate-driven events are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and complexity.
Framing events as unprecedented can lead to deferred action. Using accurate language is crucial to encourage sustained risk reduction.
Lesson 4: NZ must bridge its ‘knowledge-action gap’
New Zealand produces world-leading natural hazard research, with scientists understanding rainfall thresholds, slope instability, and infrastructure vulnerability better than ever before. But, this knowledge doesn’t consistently shape land-use planning, infrastructure investment, or emergency preparedness.
Recent research showed that 97% of government spending was on responding to and recovering from disasters, whereas only 3% was spent on risk reduction and resilience. Closing this “knowledge-action gap” requires research that supports decision-making and collaboration with organizations already working on the ground, such as marae and iwi health providers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the natural hazards New Zealand faces?
New Zealand faces a range of natural hazards including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storm surges, tsunami, drought, wildfires, and severe weather events.
What was found regarding public trust after disasters?
Research following Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 found that public trust is fragile, distress is widespread, and communities are acutely sensitive to who communicates, how and when, after disasters.
What percentage of government spending goes towards disaster risk reduction?
Only 3% of government spending is currently allocated to disaster risk reduction, with 97% spent on responding to and recovering from disasters.
If New Zealanders want to protect safety, wellbeing and prosperity in a warming world, things will have to change.
