As the year draws to a close, many may feel relief that a difficult period is ending, and hope for improvement in the year ahead. However, looking ahead to the five upcoming state elections in Germany, there may be little cause for optimism. Baden-Württemberg, with a vote scheduled for March 8th – coinciding with International Women’s Day – will see Manuel Hagel (CDU), Cem Özdemir (Grüne), and other male candidates from the SPD and AfD competing to succeed Winfried Kretschmann.
Kretschmann’s departure will mark the end of the first – and, as it appears, last – Green party Minister-President in Baden-Württemberg. While this is noteworthy, the potential shift to the right in Baden-Württemberg appears less significant when compared to the elections slated for Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin. Current polling data suggests a possible shift from a green-black coalition to a black-green government, should circumstances not change.
The real potential for significant change lies in the autumn elections. On September 6th, Sachsen-Anhalt will head to the polls, followed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20th. Sachsen-Anhalt faces a particularly critical juncture, with current polling data indicating the AfD could potentially win an absolute majority.
Should the AfD fall short of a majority, they could potentially form a coalition with the BSW, a party reportedly founded to counter the AfD, but whose founder has reportedly dismantled any barriers to cooperation with far-right groups.
As a reaction to the situation in Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin, which also holds elections on September 20th, could see a victory for a Red-Red-Green coalition, potentially with a candidate from the Left party as its leader. Elif Eralp, the Left’s candidate, is relatively unknown, as is the current CDU leader, Kai Wegner, to many Berliners. The key outcome in Berlin may simply be a change in the status quo.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, also voting on September 20th, the AfD is expected to gain significant ground, potentially leading to a situation of ungovernability rather than an outright AfD takeover.
The prevailing sentiment suggests that a firm stance on democratic principles is needed – a concept distinct from radicalization. Maintaining a steadfast commitment to democracy may seem radical given the divisions deepened by far-right groups.
Looking ahead to 2026, open dialogue will be crucial. In Sachsen-Anhalt, a vote for the SPD could become an act of anti-fascism if it allows the party to surpass the 5 percent threshold and bolster opposition to the AfD in the state parliament. Every vote carries weight, and conversations like those happening this New Year’s Eve can be a starting point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What elections are coming up in Germany?
Five state elections are scheduled for the coming year: in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin.
Which election is considered the most critical?
The election in Sachsen-Anhalt on September 6th is considered particularly critical, as current polling data suggests the AfD could potentially win an absolute majority.
What is the BSW?
The BSW is a party reportedly founded to counter the AfD, but whose founder has reportedly dismantled any barriers to cooperation with far-right groups.
What role will voters play in shaping the political landscape in the coming year?
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