The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has captured 28% of voting intentions according to an Infratest dimap survey published by ARD, holding a seven-point lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc. This development places the right-wing opposition significantly ahead of the governing coalition as the country approaches regional elections in eastern Germany.
AfD Leads Polls Ahead of Regional Elections
According to an Infratest dimap survey of 1,300 eligible voters conducted between Monday and Wednesday, the AfD gained one point to reach 28%, marking its highest result in the ARD political barometer. Two additional polls published on Tuesday confirmed identical figures and margin for the party. This polling strength arrives one month before three regional elections in eastern Germany, a stronghold where the AfD aims to govern a Land for the first time in Saxony-Anhalt, despite the “sanitary cordon” enforced by rival political groups.
Did you know? The AfD previously secured a historic score of 20.8% in the February 2025 general elections before climbing further in recent summer polling data.
Friedrich Merz Faces Historic Unpopularity
Chancellor Friedrich Merz records an 84% disapproval rating after fifteen months in office, with only 14% of surveyed citizens expressing satisfaction, representing a one-point increase from the previous month. General approval for the federal government remains capped at 13%. Internal friction compounds these figures; a late July cabinet reshuffle—triggered by the resignation of parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn amid a surrogacy controversy—sparked backlash within the conservative ranks over the dismissal of the transport minister. In response, Merz has pledged improved communication regarding style and substance, promising a fresh dynamic for his administration.
Conservative and Coalition Standings
Behind the leading AfD, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc stands at 21% after dropping one point, bringing the traditional right near its lowest recorded barometer levels. The Green party follows at 15% to lead the center-left spectrum, ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD) at 12%—who serve as government coalition partners to the conservatives—and the radical left at 11%.
German Political Barometer Breakdown
- AfD (Alternative for Germany): 28% (+1)
- CDU/CSU (Conservative Bloc): 21% (-1)
- The Greens: 15%
- SPD (Social Democrats): 12%
- Radical Left: 11%
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current polling gap between the AfD and the conservatives?
According to the Infratest dimap survey published by ARD, the AfD leads the conservative CDU/CSU bloc by seven points, registering 28% compared to the conservatives’ 21%.
When were the latest survey figures gathered?
Infratest dimap polled 1,300 eligible voters between Monday and Wednesday prior to the Thursday publication.
What is Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s current approval rating?
Merz holds an 84% disapproval rating, with 14% of respondents expressing satisfaction with his leadership after fifteen months in office.
Stay Informed on European Politics
Get daily updates on political developments, elections, and policy changes across the region.