According to Oliver Moody, a correspondent for The Times and The Sunday Times in Berlin, smaller European states possess the strategic agility to step into leadership roles and drive the continent away from long-standing blind spots regarding Russian and Chinese threats. Speaking ahead of the 9th Leonidas Donskis Memorial Conference, the journalist argues that the political discourse in Western Europe has historically marginalized the Baltic states, Nordic countries, and Poland, despite these regions correctly identifying mounting security dangers years ahead of many others.
How Berlin’s Geopolitical Blind Spots Marginalized Eastern Neighbors
Living and reporting from Berlin since 2018, Moody discovered a pronounced disconnect within German political thought during his initial years on the job. According to the journalist, nations on Germany’s eastern periphery were pushed to the sidelines, forcing him to rely heavily on US and British media rather than domestic German reporting to understand regional security perspectives. This dynamic persisted up until 2022, creating a repetitive and constrained debate around geopolitics.
That domestic discourse suffered from an inability to evaluate the full spectrum of choices regarding fossil fuel reliance on Russia and geo-economic ties with China. According to Moody, when looking East, people primarily looked toward Moscow while the geopolitical role and threat assessments held by smaller frontline states and Warsaw remained on the sidelines.
Why Smaller Nations Lead on Russia and China Policy
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Being a smaller state creates an operational freedom born of lower economic exposure to hostile superpowers and the sharp reality of existential vulnerability. According to Moody, this combination forces governments to think creatively and act courageously. Lithuania’s contentious decision to establish a Taiwanese representative office exemplifies this dynamic, sparking an economic embargo from Beijing that ultimately catalyzed the creation of the European Union’s anti-coercion trade instrument.
Similarly, Sweden took an early lead in tightening economic stances against China, proving that nations without massive global economic footprints can spark continent-wide policy shifts.
The Return of Shared Values and Defense Guarantees in Europe
Ethical values in geopolitics carry more weight today than at any point since the end of the Cold War, according to Moody. With the gradual withdrawal of the United States from European security frameworks, the continent faces difficult questions regarding mutual defense guarantees. Major powers like Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom must determine what protections they offer to smaller allies standing at the forefront of Russian hybrid aggression.
These mounting security pressures force European nations to confront foundational questions about shared identity and the distinct values separating democratic societies from Russian governance models.
Shifting German Perceptions of Baltic Security Risks
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a profound reevaluation within the German political elite, elevating the status of Baltic and Eastern European threat assessments. According to Moody, Lithuania’s prominence in the German political discourse surged particularly after Berlin decided to upgrade a previously stationed NATO battalion in Rukla to a full brigade.
This deployment establishes a tangible deterrent reality: German soldiers stationed in Lithuania would face direct combat in the event of a worst-case crisis. That high-stakes commitment has fostered a much sharper public and political awareness in Berlin regarding regional security timelines.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Oliver Moody?
Oliver Moody is a correspondent for The Times and The Sunday Times in Berlin, where he has reported on Central, Northern, and Eastern European politics since 2018. He is also the author of the book Baltic: The Future of Europe.
What is the Leonidas Donskis Memorial Conference?
The 9th Leonidas Donskis Memorial Conference, titled “The Return of Great Power Politics: A New Era for Small and Medium-Sized States,” takes place on September 18 at the Martynas Mažvydas National Library of Lithuania in Vilnius.
How has German military policy changed regarding the Baltic states?
According to Moody, the German political establishment upgraded the NATO battalion in Lithuania to a brigade, reflecting a growing recognition that German forces must be fully prepared to defend the Baltic region.
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