Germany’s population is now projected to shrink more rapidly than previously expected, according to an analysis of current data from the Federal Statistical Office by the Dresden ifo Institute for Economic Research.
The analysis indicates that by 2070, Germany’s population will likely be ten percent smaller than it is today. Previously, a one percent decline was the expected figure. The study also reveals significant regional disparities, with eastern German states experiencing the most substantial population loss, while city-states are projected to grow through 2070.
Novel Data Drives Revised Expectations
These revised projections are based on new data from the 2022 census, which recorded approximately 81.9 million residents in Germany, lower than the previously estimated 83.2 million from the 2011 census.
The analysis also shows that immigration levels have decreased more than earlier calculations suggested, impacting the forecast through 2070. Combined with the lower population base, this has led to a projected decrease in birth rates. Prior forecasts anticipated a relatively stable population, with slight growth until 2030.
According to ifo Institute Director Joachim Ragnitz, this accelerated decline and the aging population must be considered in long-term political decision-making, particularly in areas like healthcare and elder care. Fewer people will require less housing, transportation infrastructure, and public sector personnel, while simultaneously increasing the demand for health and care services. Experts also warn that the statutory pension insurance system will face increased pressure alongside existing labor shortages.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected population decline for Germany?
The analysis projects a ten percent decline in Germany’s population by 2070, compared to today’s numbers.
Which regions are expected to be most affected by the population decline?
Eastern German states are expected to experience the most significant population decline, while city-states are projected to grow through 2070.
What factors are contributing to this revised projection?
New data from the 2022 census, combined with a greater-than-previously-estimated decrease in immigration levels, are contributing to the revised projection.
How will Germany adapt to a shrinking and aging population?
