Giorgia Meloni clung to her relationship with Trump – now it’s starting to look like a liability | Riccardo Alcaro

The High-Stakes Balancing Act: Italy, the US, and the Novel Geopolitical Order

For years, the relationship between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and US President Donald Trump was seen as a blueprint for the new global right. Built on a shared civilizational vision of the West—rooted in common history, religion, and cultural homogeneity—this alliance was intended to bridge the gap between Washington’s nationalist wave and European conservatism.

However, recent frictions have revealed a critical flaw: ideology only carries a leader so far when national interests and economic realities collide. The shift from ideological alignment to strategic friction suggests a broader trend in how mid-sized European powers will navigate an increasingly volatile relationship with the United States.

The ‘Pragmatic Pivot’: Why Europe is Reclaiming Its Center

One of the most significant trends emerging from the Meloni-Trump rift is the “pragmatic pivot.” For a long time, Meloni employed a dual-track strategy: maintaining proximity to Trump to bolster her credentials with the right, while remaining a constructive partner within the European Union.

This balance has grow nearly impossible to maintain. When US policy creates structural insecurity—such as the economic fallout from the war with Iran affecting petrol prices for ordinary Italians—domestic pressure outweighs ideological loyalty. We are seeing a trend where European leaders must prioritize regional stability over bilateral “special relationships” with Washington.

The sight of Meloni physically embracing Emmanuel Macron at a recent Paris summit on the strait of Hormuz is a powerful symbol. It suggests that even the most ardent nationalist-conservatives may find their only viable path to survival through renewed cooperation with the European mainstream.

The Liability of the ‘Strongman’ Association

There is a growing realization that close association with a polarizing US administration can become a domestic political albatross. In Italy, this was evidenced by a setback in a referendum on judicial reform, where the association with Trump proved to be a liability rather than an asset.

As voters become more sensitive to how foreign alliances impact their daily cost of living and national dignity, leaders will likely distance themselves from “strongman” diplomacy to avoid alienating their own electorates.

Strategic Autonomy vs. US Dependency

The current tension underscores a recurring theme in European politics: the quest for strategic autonomy. Italy’s experience shows that bilateral leverage with Washington often yields few tangible advantages. While Italy may have seen some clemency regarding US imports of pasta, larger issues—like tariffs or defense spending—are handled collectively by the EU.

Future trends indicate that European nations will increasingly coordinate their resistance to US pressure through EU partners rather than attempting to negotiate individual deals. Whether the issue is Ukraine or the Middle East, the “strength in numbers” approach is replacing the “personal friendship” approach to diplomacy.

The Risk of Binary Choices

The most pressing question for leaders like Meloni is whether they can avoid a binary choice: leaning decisively toward Europe or re-engaging with the US on Trump’s terms. If Europe continues to be excluded from key security and economic decisions, the pressure to submit to Washington’s terms may increase, even at the cost of domestic popularity.

Looking Ahead: The Path to 2027

As Italy moves toward its next general election, scheduled for December 2027 at the latest, the government faces a challenging landscape. A sputtering economy and a deteriorating security environment—for which many Italians hold the US administration responsible—will define the campaign.

The tension between the “party leader” who appeals to the nationalist base and the “statesperson” who must manage a nation’s interests is no longer a theoretical problem. It is a practical crisis of governance.