Gulf Oil Exports Surge Following Strait of Hormuz Stabilization
Gulf oil exports rebounded in June, exceeding 10 million barrels per day (bpd) after the U.S. military helped to keep oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. While this represents a significant jump of over 3 million bpd from May, total volumes remain approximately 40% below pre-war levels.
How Did the Strait of Hormuz Conflict Impact Global Supply?
The conflict created a massive bottleneck for crude, with floating storage in the region peaking at 96 million barrels in late April, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball. As of early July, roughly 23 million barrels remained to transit the waterway following an agreement between the U.S. and Iran on June 17 to halt the conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE played a central role in the recovery, hitting record export levels of 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June. This surge helped lower oil prices to pre-conflict levels by clearing stranded inventory. Data from Kpler, Vortexa, and LSEG confirm this increase, which saw UAE exports climb by more than 1 million bpd compared to May.
Ship broker BRS recorded 98 tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz between June 22 and June 28. This was the highest traffic volume since the conflict began, signaling a return in confidence among international ship owners.
Which Producers Saw the Largest Gains in June?
Export recoveries varied across the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia and Iran showing distinct growth patterns:
- Saudi Arabia: Exports rose by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd in June, according to Kpler. Loadings from the Ras Tanura terminal were a primary driver of this growth.
- Iran: Exports climbed by more than 70% to 640,000 bpd as the U.S. blockade eased, per Vortexa data.
- Iraq and Kuwait: Both nations saw exports recover to approximately 800,000 bpd each. Kuwait additionally reported a sharp rise in output to 1.65 million bpd, according to a source cited by Reuters.
What Are the Long-Term Implications for Oil Logistics?
The recent crisis highlighted the vulnerability of relying solely on the Strait of Hormuz. During the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE utilized pipelines to bypass the waterway, a strategy that remained unavailable to Iraq and Kuwait. ADNOC also maintained steady exports by employing a tanker shuttle service.
The contrast between the two data providers highlights the volatility of the situation: Kpler estimated total combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran at 10.07 million bpd, while Vortexa placed the figure slightly higher at 10.2 million bpd. Both sources agree that current levels are significantly lower than the 16.5 million bpd observed a year earlier.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much oil is still stranded in the Gulf?
According to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, approximately 23 million barrels of crude remained to transit the Strait of Hormuz as of early July.
Are ship owners returning to the Gulf?
Yes. Data from ship broker BRS shows 98 tankers crossed the strait between June 22 and June 28, including 47 laden outbound tankers and 41 ballast vessels entering the region.
Did exports return to pre-conflict levels in June?
No. While exports jumped by more than 3 million bpd, they remain 40% below pre-war levels, according to Vortexa data.
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