Gulf officials prepare for possible military conflict while indirect talks continue in Doha over an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the United States midterm elections on Tuesday.
Sunday marked the third day of indirect talks. Qatari mediators worked to secure the unfreezing of over $6bn in Iranian funds.
This initiative could unlock the strait of Hormuz and revive talks concerning Iran’s nuclear programme. The diplomatic push follows months of tension and military conflict that began with joint strikes by the United States and Israel on February 28.
Mediators Review Terms for Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian security chief outlined terms in Doha. Vessels using a reopened Strait of Hormuz would follow a path coordinated by Iran and Oman, with all transit operating under Iranian oversight.
"America’s Arab Allies Brace for War as Trump’s Midterm Deadline Looms" A dispatch on the regional mood, from a Riyadh-Manama-Doha-Riyadh roadtrip I made over the past few days:https://t.co/bNuCmKEBEa
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that he hoped Washington would choose diplomacy over other paths,
adding that Tehran was ready for both defense and diplomacy depending on American rationality.
Friday brought a strike by unknown missiles against a Qatari LNG carrier heading to Pakistan near the strait of Hormuz. The attack failed to halt the diplomatic outreach.
United Arab Emirates official Anwar Gargash stated that another round of escalation served no regional interest. He noted that relations with Iran are essential, because Iran is our neighbour and we do not want to see it get caught up in a prolonged crisis.
Gargash acknowledged at the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain that stances between Washington and Tehran remained far apart. He warned that if these positions are not bridged, then we have to worry about the worst.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty similarly told the gathering a day earlier that a second round of escalation would be more dangerous and destructive.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says a deal to end the war is still FAR off, and the overnight fireworks prove it. A senior Iranian official said the 2 sides remain far apart, and Tehran won't accept Washington's "excessive demands." Iran's order of business: meet its conditions first, THEN Hormuz… pic.twitter.com/AgrY1Gzkzw
Capitals Fear Renewed Military Action
The prospect of renewed military action has fueled anxiety across Gulf capitals regarding the safety of regional infrastructure. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned that any threat from the United States would face an immediate response without geographic limitations.
In a message posted on Telegram, Iran’s armed forces warned that if the enemies resume military or terrorist attacks, it is the Islamic Republic’s armed forces and the Iranian nation who will determine the time and conditions for its end.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is warning the U. S. of a new battlefield if talks go sideways. Parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has given Washington a firm response, and the ball is now in America's court. If the U. S. makes another strategic mistake, he…
Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that the U.S. tone had completely changed in a positive direction. He noted that Tehran awaited a formal response from Washington.
Rezaei specified that ships passing through a reopened Strait of Hormuz would operate under Iranian management via an agreed route with Oman.
Iran's Ghalibaf: We have given the Americans a firm response, and the ball is now in their court. If Washington makes another strategic mistake, it will face a new battlefield and be even more desperate to find a way out. pic.twitter.com/SLQ0CPBgzL
Donald Trump remarked on Saturday that the United States had knocked out much of Iran’s military capacity but still needed to address one or two targets.
European officials indicated that the United States has amassed sufficient military assets in the region to launch actions at short notice following Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Energy Producers Face Regional Constraints
Prolonged shipping disruptions and military strikes have severely constrained operations for regional energy producers. State-owned QatarEnergy faced setbacks in March when Iranian missile strikes damaged liquefaction units, known as trains, 4 and 6, knocking 12.8 million tonnes of annual capacity offline.
In response to regional constraints, QatarEnergy signed agreements to purchase supplies outside the Persian Gulf, including deals with Cheniere Energy for supplies from terminals in Louisiana and Texas.
Regional security analysts and officials meeting at the Manama conference discussed how America’s extensive military footprint in the region has functioned as fixed targets during conflicts.
.@POTUS on Iran: "A war is fighting… When was the last time you saw us fighting with them? We go months and months; we talk. They're in not a good negotiating position… We're dealing from total strength." pic.twitter.com/0xHDpj7Nqm
Emile Hokayem of The International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that Iran is better positioned for another round of confrontation. Discussions centered on the historic vulnerabilities faced by host nations, where sectarian fault lines and previous internal unrest compound fears of retaliatory strikes on vital civilian and energy infrastructure.
Earlier coverage: US-Iran Conflict: Trump's Next Moves and Hormuz Strait Live Updates