Lost in the broadening regional war sparked by the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, a historic turning point occurred: Qatar shot down two Iranian jets approaching its territory. This marked the first time an Arab state militarily clashed with Iran.
A Shift in Gulf State Posture
In less than 72 hours, Gulf states have undergone a transformation, evolving from proponents of peace and dependents on American security to wartime actors actively defending their countries. The Monday action signaled a message: under siege, once-passive Gulf Arab states are striking back.
While the Gulf states still hope for a diplomatic resolution, they are demonstrating a willingness to take increasingly offensive action to protect their citizens, economies and residents. This shift is likewise prompting a reevaluation of their relationship with the United States.
Escalating Tensions
Initially, Gulf states cautiously insisted on diplomacy even as their capitals came under attack on Saturday. However, Iran subsequently escalated attacks to include airports, seaports, embassies, hotels, residential high-rises, AI data centers, and, critically, Gulf gas fields and oil refineries. Around 1,800 Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted in Gulf airspace in less than five days, with hundreds breaking through.
The United Arab Emirates alone has been hit by over 1,000 Iranian missiles, and drones. Attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Riyadh International Airport, and Aramco oil refineries reportedly prompted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to instruct his military to directly engage Iranian forces, though the Saudi government has not commented.
Considering Offensive Options
Qatar, a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas war, also faced red lines including attacks on residential areas in Doha, disruption of Qatar Airways, and strikes on its LNG terminals. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari publicly warned Iran of a shift toward military action, stating, “This cannot go unanswered; a price has to be paid for this attack on our people.”
Gulf states are now considering “forward defense,” mobilizing military assets to intercept incoming rockets and strike approaching Iranian jets, as Qatar did this week. Another scenario under discussion is opening their airspace and territories for U.S. Military operations against Iran.
However, joining the conflict carries risks. According to Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Gulf states risk being drawn into an open-ended confrontation led by the U.S. And Israel, a war they did not initiate and cannot fully control. Concerns also exist regarding the role of Israel and its potential for dominance in the region.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the shift in Gulf state policy?
Iran stepped up its attacks on airports, seaports, embassies, hotels, residential high-rises, AI data centers, and Gulf gas fields and oil refineries, prompting Gulf states to act.
What was the significance of Qatar shooting down Iranian jets?
It was the first time an Arab state had militarily clashed with Iran, signaling a shift from passive defense to active resistance.
What options are Gulf states considering in response to the attacks?
Gulf states are considering “forward defense” – mobilizing military assets – and potentially opening their airspace for U.S. Military operations against Iran.
As tensions remain high, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi has called for regional diplomacy, stating, “We find off ramps available. Let’s use them.”
