The losses for Belgium will be limited to almost 1.6 billion euros if the European Union and the United Kingdom reach a last-minute deal. The chances of a hard Brexit have increased sharply according to Euler Hermes, who now assesses them at 45%. According to its latest calculations, a no-deal Brexit could lead to 33 billion euros in export losses each year for European Union countries. Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium are said to be the hardest hit countries.
The sectors most affected in Belgium are those of transport (in the event of a hard Brexit: loss of exports of 969 million euros), chemicals (409 million euros), plastics (284 million euros) , mineral products (216 million euros) and textiles (207 million euros).
According to Euler Hermes, the UK could also face negative growth of 5% of its GDP in 2021, a decline in exports of 15% and inflation of more than 5% for at least six months, after an already dramatic year 2020 (around -11% of GDP).
However, given the social, political and economic consequences of a hard Brexit on top of the coronavirus crisis, Euler Hermes expects a last-minute deal.