Holiday makers face possible flight cancellations in May – The Irish Times

The Jet Fuel Crunch: Why Your Next Flight Could Be at Risk

The global aviation industry is staring down a “sobering” reality. With energy supplies tightening due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the ripple effects are moving from oil tankers to airport departure boards. For travelers, In other words the possibility of flight cancellations as jet fuel reserves dwindle.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe currently holds only about six weeks of jet fuel remaining. If the current squeeze persists, the industry could see significant disruptions, with some flight cancellations potentially beginning by the end of May.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Economic Trigger

The volatility of air travel is inextricably linked to a narrow passage of water. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the primary export route for oil produced by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In 2025, an average of 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and oil products passed through this route—representing roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

When this waterway is disrupted, the impact is immediate. We have already seen global oil prices skyrocket and tankers arrive to a standstill. While recent diplomatic efforts have led to the strait being “completely open” for commercial transit during a ceasefire, the recovery is not instantaneous. A US naval blockade remains in place until a deal is “100% complete,” adding a layer of uncertainty to the supply chain.

For more on how these chokepoints affect global trade, see our guide on [Internal Link: Global Trade Chokepoints Explained].

The “Lag Effect” in Fuel Recovery

One might assume that reopening the strait would immediately solve the fuel crisis. However, industry experts warn that This represents not the case. Damage to refining capacity across the Middle East means that jet fuel supplies will likely remain tight and costly for months.

This creates a dangerous lag. Even as tankers begin to move again, the process of refining that crude into usable jet fuel takes time. This is why the International Energy Agency warns that the shortage is a persistent threat.

Regional Impacts: Asia vs. Europe and the Americas

The energy crisis is not hitting every region simultaneously. Asian carriers have already been on the front line, with some airlines already cancelling flights. This is largely because a vast majority of the oil and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia.

The disparity is evident in the pricing: some reports indicate that refiners in Asia have paid up to $170 a barrel for crude oil deliveries, even while prices in the wider market dropped below $100.

However, the warning from IEA chief executive Fatih Birol is clear: if the conflict continues to limit supplies, Europe and the Americas will inevitably begin to suffer the same fate.

Future Trends: Rationing and “Slot Relief”

As the industry prepares for the worst-case scenario, the conversation is shifting from “if” to “how” we manage the shortage. Willie Walsh, the chief executive of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has stressed the need for well-coordinated plans in case fuel rationing becomes necessary.

One key trend to watch is the implementation of “slot relief.” Normally, airlines can lose their take-off and landing slots at busy airports if they fail to use them. Under slot relief, airlines forced to cancel flights due to fuel shortages would not lose these valuable rights, preventing a long-term collapse of airline schedules once fuel becomes available again.

Authorities are now being urged to secure alternative supply lines to bypass traditional chokepoints and stabilize the flow of aviation fuel.

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