A single intramuscular glucocorticoid injection followed by one year of methotrexate treatment significantly reduces physical disability and the risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients who are anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) negative, according to findings published in The Lancet Rheumatology. Five-year follow-up data from the TREAT EARLIER trial indicates that these intervention strategies are not effective for ACPA-positive patients, suggesting that clinical prevention must be tailored to the patient’s specific pathophysiological subtype.
Why ACPA Status Determines Treatment Success
The distinction between ACPA-negative and ACPA-positive patients is critical because the two groups possess different genetic and environmental risk factors. According to Elise van Mulligen and colleagues at Leiden University Medical Center, the failure of the treatment in ACPA-positive individuals suggests that the underlying mechanisms of their disease—which may involve chronic processes established before treatment—are not adequately addressed by time-limited methotrexate.

While the study showed a clear benefit for the ACPA-negative group, the researchers noted that the pathological mechanisms driving the progression from arthralgia to RA in ACPA-positive patients remain largely unidentified. For these patients, the current medical approach may simply not be targeting the correct biological pathways.
In the TREAT EARLIER study, the number needed to treat to prevent one diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis in the ACPA-negative group was four, highlighting a high efficiency for this specific subset of patients.
Impact on Long-Term Physical Disability
At the five-year mark, ACPA-negative participants who received active treatment showed a sustained improvement in physical function. Data from the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) indicated a mean 0.16-point lower disability score compared to those who received a placebo. Crude HAQ scores were 0.43 for the active treatment group versus 0.65 for the placebo group.
These patients also reported significantly reduced morning stiffness, with a mean visual analog scale score 20.6 points lower than the placebo cohort. Conversely, ACPA-positive patients showed no sustained significant benefit in disability scores or stiffness, with a 0.12-point difference in HAQ scores compared to placebo.
Comparing Treatment Outcomes
| Patient Group | RA Development (Treatment) | RA Development (Placebo) |
|---|---|---|
| ACPA-Negative | 9% | 32% |
| ACPA-Positive | 58% | 65% |
The findings suggest that clinicians should transition toward precision prevention strategies for patients with clinically suspect arthralgia. By identifying subclinical joint inflammation early, doctors may be able to modify the course of disease before it progresses to full-blown rheumatoid arthritis, but only if the patient is ACPA-negative.

The study, which followed 120 of the original 236 participants for five years, suggests that the “window of opportunity” for intervention is highly dependent on the patient’s biological profile. As researchers continue to investigate these subtypes, the focus remains on whether different drugs—or longer durations of treatment—might eventually provide benefits to the ACPA-positive population.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Does methotrexate prevent rheumatoid arthritis in everyone? No. According to the study, the benefit is primarily seen in ACPA-negative patients.
- What is the main advantage for ACPA-negative patients? They experience lower rates of progression to RA and sustained improvements in physical disability and morning stiffness.
- How long did the study follow the patients? The data reflects a five-year follow-up period from the original TREAT EARLIER trial.
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