Russia has increasingly transitioned into a junior partner role to China, a shift solidified under Vladimir Putin’s administration as Moscow’s ties with the West collapsed. Beijing now exerts quiet influence over Russian domestic and foreign policy, prioritizing its own strategic interests while securing long-term influence within the Russian political elite, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal.
Beijing’s Strategy for a Post-Putin Russia
China is moving beyond its reliance on Vladimir Putin, actively cultivating relationships with mid-level bureaucrats and officials who are likely to shape Russia’s future trajectory. While Moscow remains wary, there is evidence of increased Chinese espionage and recruitment attempts targeting Russian state employees. According to a source close to the Russian special services, the Kremlin has avoided public confrontation or formal diplomatic protests regarding these activities, fearing that an open dispute would jeopardize the broader bilateral relationship.
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Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, suggests that China aims to turn Russia into a “giant Laos or a massive Pakistan”—a state deeply dependent on Beijing, mirroring its development model, and permanently tethered to China’s geopolitical orbit.
Shifting Power in Central Asia
Central Asia, long considered Russia’s exclusive “near abroad” and a traditional sphere of influence, is steadily gravitating toward Beijing. For over a decade, Vladimir Putin resisted Chinese efforts to establish the yuan as the primary currency for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Development Bank. However, financial isolation caused by Western sanctions has forced a reversal.
Diplomats and government advisors cited by The Wall Street Journal confirm that Xi Jinping secured Putin’s consent to move forward with this financial shift. Russia is now seeking membership in the bank, provided that its operations can be shielded from international sanctions. This marks a departure from Russia’s previous stance, as other major financial institutions where China holds influence, such as the New Development Bank of BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have kept Russia at arm’s length to avoid violating Western compliance mandates.
The Stalled “Power of Siberia 2” Pipeline
The proposed “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline, intended to replace Russia’s lost European energy market, has reached a critical impasse. Despite public statements from Putin and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller regarding a “legally binding memorandum” signed in September 2025, Beijing has offered no official confirmation. In reality, Chinese officials have reportedly asked the Russian delegation to stop raising the project unless terms change significantly.
The economic discrepancy is stark. China is demanding gas prices equivalent to Russia’s domestic market rate—approximately $50 per 1,000 cubic meters. Currently, China pays a discounted rate for 1,000 cubic meters, which is already 39% lower than what Gazprom charges other international clients. By next year, Russian Ministry of Economic Development projections suggest this price will drop further, deepening the discount to 34%.
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As Jörg Wuttke, a German businessman with extensive experience in Sino-Russian economic relations, notes, China faces no economic pressure to build the pipeline. With global LNG supplies abundant and China aggressively shifting toward renewables, Beijing prefers to wait for Russia’s economic position to deteriorate further, potentially forcing Moscow to accept even lower prices in the future.
Trade Imbalance and Economic Dependence
The trade relationship between the two nations is fundamentally lopsided. In 2013, when Xi first met Putin, China accounted for roughly 10% of Russia’s foreign trade. That figure has since quadrupled. Conversely, Russia makes up less than 4% of China’s total foreign trade, cementing its status as a primary supplier of raw materials—oil and gas—often sold at steep discounts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is China reluctant to build the “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline?
According to analysts and business leaders like Jörg Wuttke, China sees no economic necessity. With sufficient global gas supplies and a national focus on renewable energy, Beijing is hesitant to increase its long-term energy dependency on Russia.
Is Russia losing influence in Central Asia?
Yes. Financial and geopolitical pressures have forced Russia to concede on key projects, such as the SCO Development Bank, which will now increasingly utilize the Chinese yuan.
How does China view its future relationship with Russia?
Beijing is playing a long game. By building deep institutional ties with Russian mid-level officials and bureaucrats, China is positioning itself to maintain influence over Moscow regardless of who leads the country after Putin.
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