The National Center for Estimation, Prevention and Risk Reduction of Disasters (Cenepred) has updated its risk projections for the upcoming summer, warning that 27 million people are now in danger of being affected by landslides and flooding due to the El Niño phenomenon. This new estimate, based on data from the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) and the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (Senamhi), significantly exceeds the government’s previous June projection of seven million people at risk.
Projected Impact on Populations and Infrastructure
Cenepred’s updated assessment identifies 185 districts across the country as high-risk zones. In a “very high” risk scenario for landslides, 1.3 million people across 17 departments—including Piura, Lima, Lambayeque, La Libertad, and Huánuco—are considered vulnerable. An additional 5.7 million people in 21 departments face “high” risk from similar mass movements, with 3.4 million of those residents located in the Lima region.
The infrastructure at risk is substantial. According to Cenepred, the combined threats of landslides and floods endanger 2,514,454 homes, 4,196 health centers, and 25,550 educational institutions nationwide.
Did You Know?
Cenepred’s latest report marks the first time the agency has projected the potential impact of El Niño on national transport infrastructure, identifying that approximately 28.67% of the 181,000-kilometer national road network—or three out of every 10 kilometers—could face damage from landslides or flooding.
Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Economic Stakes
The potential for damage extends to 51,899 kilometers of roads. Regions such as Piura, Áncash, and La Libertad face a “very high” risk of road destruction. Patricia Benavente, former president of the Supervisory Body for Investment in Public Use Transport Infrastructure (Ositrán), noted that while 18 road concession contracts exist, only the Autopista del Sol and Red Vial 4 have made special provisions to handle potential El Niño damage. Benavente estimated that reinforcing the majority of these roads, including hydraulic works and bridge repairs, could cost nearly S/ 33,000 million.
Geovani Diez, president of the Transport and Logistics Guild of Peru and America (GTL), warned that the destruction of these routes could lead to food supply shortages in Lima and other major cities. Furthermore, the inability to transport agricultural products in a timely manner, coupled with the impact of high temperatures on harvests, may force many producers into bankruptcy.
Expert Insight:
The sharp increase in the number of people at risk—from seven million to 27 million—illustrates how quickly risk assessments evolve as meteorological models move from “moderate” to “strong” intensity. The economic stakes are twofold: the immediate cost of infrastructure repair and the long-term inflationary pressure caused by supply chain disruptions and food price volatility.
Economic Consequences and Inflation Risks
Economist Jorge González Izquierdo indicated that the El Niño phenomenon could hinder national economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, potentially keeping growth below 3% for 2026. Inflation is also a primary concern, as crop destruction and damaged logistics networks are likely to increase food prices.
Some analysts project that annual inflation could exceed 4% by the end of 2026, surpassing the Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s (BCRP) target range of 1% to 3%. This inflationary effect could extend beyond food to include construction materials and other transport-dependent goods if the phenomenon proves to be both severe and prolonged.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the estimate of people at risk increase from 7 million to 27 million?
The initial estimate in June was based on a “moderate” magnitude projection from Enfen. The new, higher figure follows an updated report incorporating Enfen’s later forecast of a “strong” to “moderate” event, along with new data from Senamhi and historical references from previous extraordinary El Niño events.
Which sectors of infrastructure are most vulnerable to the forecasted weather?
Cenepred identifies over 51,000 kilometers of roads, millions of homes, 4,196 health centers, and 25,550 schools as being at risk of damage from landslides and flooding.
What is the expected impact on the Peruvian economy?
According to economist Jorge González Izquierdo, the phenomenon could reduce economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point and push inflation above the 4% annual mark by the end of 2026, primarily due to rising food prices and supply chain failures.
What measures should be prioritized to mitigate the potential impact on food security and road connectivity?
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