Progressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and leave the Labour Party within touching distance of a parliamentary majority, provided tactical voting is widespread at the next general election. That is the central finding of a major new poll of more than 8,000 voters shared with the Guardian, which indicates that Andy Burnham is starting to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour due to a shared desire to stop Nigel Farage.
Electoral Strategy and Voter Shifts Under Burnham
The research suggests that the prime minister’s most successful electoral strategy involves uniting the centre and left bloc of voters while the right remains split. This approach marks a distinct contrast to the tactics of Keir Starmer’s Labour prior to the 2024 general election, when the party focused on attracting more conservative older voters. Such a strategy previously unsettled some within Labour because it mirrored the approach used for Ed Miliband’s unsuccessful bid in 2015, although that effort took place before Reform arrived as a major electoral force.
Conducted by Survation and the progressive activist site 38 Degrees during Burnham’s first month as prime minister, the unreleased research includes a seat-by-seat MRP model. The poll arrives on the eve of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, revealing a clear shift of left-leaning voters toward Burnham’s leadership. This trend will encourage party figures contemplating an early election while Reform’s ratings ebb and leftwing parties like the Greens appear to lose momentum, particularly as twice as many voters have returned to Labour from the left than from the right since April.
Detailed Projections and the Impact of Tactical Voting
Without widespread tactical switching, the modelling shows Labour would be the largest party in parliament on 272 seats if an election took place today, holding a four-point lead and achieving 42% of parliamentary seats with 28% of the vote. Reform UK would become the official opposition on 153 seats—representing 24% of seats, matching its vote share—while the Conservatives would drop to third place with 85 seats. However, 200 seats stand as tight marginals decided by under five points, meaning a two- to three-point swing could move roughly 100 seats.
Did You Know? In 2024, the now-chancellor, John Healey, successfully held Rawmarsh and Conisbrough with 49% of the vote, while Reform finished second on 28.6%.
About 18% of voters living in seats where tactical voting could make a substantial difference state they are willing to switch but have not yet committed to doing so. If those voters act tactically, Reform UK’s seat total would drop sharply to 62, while Labour would climb to 319 seats—leaving the party just six short of a majority. Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation’s chief executive, noted that four in 10 voters currently back a party that cannot finish in the top two locally yet remain willing to vote tactically, creating an enormous untapped reservoir worth 18 points of the national electorate.
Specific Constituency Contests and Forecasts
Of the 91 seats where Reform would cease to be the most likely winner under heavier tactical voting, 46 would go to the Conservatives and 43 to Labour. Reform’s chances of winning dropped by more than 50 points across 59 seats, including the Wrekin, Torridge and Tavistock, and North West Cambridgeshire. In Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, base modelling indicates Reform holds a 51% chance of winning a tight race, but that figure plummets if tactical voting increases, leaving a 76% chance for Labour to hold the seat.
In Bassetlaw, Reform could lose even if its vote share rises from 35% to 40%, because tactical voting would lift Labour further from 32% to 40%, shifting the winner from Reform (with a 77% chance) to Labour (58%). Meanwhile, Newark—held by the Conservative-turned-Reform MP Robert Jenrick—is forecast to flip to the Conservatives under both scenarios, though heavier tactical voting increases the chance of a Conservative win from 68% to over 99% if Labour supporters back the Conservatives to stop him.
Expert Insight: While mathematical models illustrate clear mechanical shifts when voters coordinate around local frontrunners, real-world dynamics involve persistent voter loyalties. For example, progressive voters in Labour-held Southend are unlikely to back Conservatives, highlighting the practical limitations of blanket tactical projections.
Veronica Hawking, the campaigns director at 38 Degrees, pointed out that the polling points to a more optimistic public mood alongside strong expectations for Burnham to deliver. Voters across different directions remain united by the cost of living crisis, which carries the single biggest bearing on their future vote.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Survation and 38 Degrees poll reveal about Labour’s current standing?
The poll suggests that Labour would be the largest party in parliament on 272 seats if an election were held immediately, putting the party on 42% of parliamentary seats with 28% of the vote.
How would widespread tactical voting affect Reform UK?
If uncommitted voters willing to vote tactically switch to the top local contenders, Reform UK’s seat count would fall from 153 down to 62 seats, dropping the party from official opposition to fourth place.
Which constituency examples highlight these potential shifts?
Constituencies such as Rawmarsh and Conisbrough and Bassetlaw could shift from projected Reform victories to Labour holds or wins if tactical voting increases, while Newark is forecast to remain or flip more decisively to the Conservatives depending on tactical switching.
How will local voter coordination ultimately shape the outcome of the next general election in your constituency?
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