Hurricane Nolo is currently tracking north at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, centered approximately 240 miles south of the Big Island, as Hawaii prepares for potentially catastrophic weather over the weekend. Forecasters indicate the system could become a major Category 3 hurricane, making it potentially the strongest storm to impact the Big Island since Hurricane Dot in August 1959.

Current Storm Status and Forecast Track

Nolo is presently a Category 1 hurricane with outer bands approaching the Big Island, where winds are already gusting up to 30 mph in southern areas. According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane-force winds extend up to 40 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds reach outward up to 105 miles. The system is moving through an area of very warm sea surface temperatures and abundant moisture, which is expected to fuel rapid intensification.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout Friday before the storm makes a sharp westward turn on Saturday near Hawaii Island. While some recent model runs shifted the track further south and left parts of the island chain outside the immediate cone of uncertainty, forecasters caution that storms frequently wobble. A similar shift occurred recently with Hurricane Lowell, bringing intense rains and winds even as it passed nearby.

Potential Impacts: Rainfall and Wind Threats

The National Hurricane Center has issued flood watches and warned of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across the Big Island and Maui. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecasts peak rainfall totals of up to 35 inches over mountain slopes on the Big Island, up to 15 inches on Maui, and up to 6 inches across the rest of the island chain. These heavy rains arrive on ground that remains saturated from Hurricane Lala, which struck the region in mid-August.

Hurricane Nolo tracks north as Hawaii prepares for catastrophic weather
Photo: yahoo.com

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours, and hurricane conditions remain possible across Hawaii County through the weekend. In addition to heavy precipitation, coastal areas face dangerous surf, rip currents, and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet around the Big Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently active for Hawaii County alongside a Hurricane Watch, while a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County.

Did You Know? Hurricane Nolo originated as Tropical Depression Fifteen-E on September 13 well southeast of Hawaii before temporarily fizzling out in strong wind shear. It later moved into an area of reduced shear, allowing the system to regenerate into an active hurricane.

Frequently Asked Questions

What watches and warnings are currently in effect for Hawaii?

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for Hawaii County. A Tropical Storm Watch is active for Maui County, and Flood Watches remain in effect across the islands of Hawaii and Maui County.

How strong is Hurricane Nolo expected to get?

Nolo is forecast to steadily intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane or stronger over the weekend as it moves into warm sea surface temperatures with abundant moisture.

Is this the first tropical system to impact Hawaii this season?

No, Nolo is Hawaii’s fourth tropical system of the 2026 hurricane season, following Hurricane Lala, Tropical Storm Moke, and Hurricane Lowell.

What precautions are you taking in your area as Hurricane Nolo approaches the islands?