President Prabowo Subianto is facing rising political pressure in 2026 as economic instability and concerns over state spending fuel public criticism from key rivals. With the Indonesian rupiah hitting record lows and foreign investment retreating, political heavyweights—including Anies Baswedan and Coordinating Minister Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono—have begun openly challenging the administration’s policy direction, signaling an early start to the 2029 electoral cycle.
Economic Strains and Public Scrutiny
The Prabowo administration is contending with significant financial headwinds. The Indonesian rupiah has become the worst-performing currency in Asia, and the Jakarta Composite Index has fallen to its lowest levels since May 2021 as foreign investors exit the market. According to critics, much of this strain stems from inefficient state spending. The government’s flagship free nutritious meal programme (MBG) has placed a heavy burden on the state budget, while the “Red and White Cooperative” programme—which includes the construction of buildings across hundreds of regencies and the importation of Indian-made trucks—has drawn sharp public ire. Observers note that this import bill is particularly controversial given Indonesia’s existing automotive manufacturing sector.
The Return of Political Rivals
Anies Baswedan, who placed second in the 2024 presidential election with nearly 41 million votes, has ended a year of relative silence to critique the government. In an Instagram post on May 20, Anies stated, “Frankly, things are not okay. The rupiah has fallen to record lows, prices are rising, job opportunities are narrowing, household buying power is weakening, savings are being eroded. And this affects the livelihoods of ordinary people.” Anies has also recently clashed with Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, publicly backing former ambassador Dino Patti Djalal. Political analyst Boni Hargens of the University of Indonesia suggests that Anies’ shift toward open criticism is a calculated move to maintain relevance by targeting urban middle-class voters sensitive to financial instability.
Internal Friction Within the Cabinet
Criticism has also emerged from within the administration. Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure Affairs Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, known as AHY, has issued remarks that analysts view as a bold, risky form of self-criticism. On May 17, at the Hotel Indonesia roundabout, Agus warned that economic development must not destroy the environment, a stance Boni Hargens interprets as a critique of the administration’s controversial food estate programme in Papua. Furthermore, on May 23, Agus highlighted persistent “sectoral ego” among ministries, noting that agencies often compete for budget allocations at the expense of unified government goals. Political analyst Sebastian Salang suggests that while these moves may serve as political investment for a 2029 run, they risk upsetting a President unaccustomed to such internal dissent.
What May Happen Next
As the administration navigates these economic and political pressures, analysts expect the intensity of the opposition to grow. Former president Joko Widodo is preparing a nationwide tour that is expected to keep him in the public eye, ostensibly to support Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and boost the electability of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is chaired by his son Kaesang Pangarep. Given that Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono’s hopes of being retained as Prabowo’s running mate in 2029 have reportedly dimmed, observers suggest a further pivot toward the opposition by the Minister could become increasingly likely.
