The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 65-year-old framework governing water-sharing between India and Pakistan, faces a fundamental challenge following India’s May 2025 decision to hold the agreement in abeyance. According to the chairman of Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority, this unilateral move departs from decades of cooperation and introduces significant instability into the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), which supports over 90 percent of Pakistan’s food production.
Status of the Indus Waters Treaty
For more than six decades, the IWT has served as the foundation for water resources development in Pakistan, ensuring predictable flows that feed the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system. This system includes three major reservoirs, six barrages, and twelve inter-river link canals, irrigating nearly 35 million acres of land. The treaty has long been considered a pillar of strategic stability in South Asia, providing the certainty required for Pakistan’s hydropower and agricultural sectors.
Following the decision in May 2025, India has accelerated upstream infrastructure development on the western rivers. Planned projects include the expansion of the Ranbir Canal and the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel. These developments have raised concerns regarding the long-term water security of Pakistan, which functions as a lower riparian state with limited capacity to offset upstream regulation.
The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the world’s largest contiguous irrigation network, encompassing an extensive distribution network that sustains 90 percent of Pakistan’s food production through a coordinated hydraulic network of barrages and link canals.
Impact on Hydrological Data Sharing
A critical component of the current tension involves the suspension of hydrological data sharing. India has ceased providing flow data for the Western Rivers to Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters. This suspension violates data-sharing obligations established under the IWT, according to the Water and Power Development Authority.
The absence of this data significantly hampered Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness during the 2025 flood season. Without timely information on river flows, the ability to regulate canal diversions and manage flood hazards is weakened, increasing risks to infrastructure, human life, and livelihoods. These actions have been described as inconsistent with humanitarian principles and the pursuit of the “One Water-One Vision” principle discussed at the recent UN-led Water Convention in Geneva.
The strategic stakes here extend beyond simple water volume. Because the Indus Basin operates as a single, interconnected hydraulic network, any upstream regulation of the Chenab River—which carries an average annual flow of 25 million acre-feet at Marala—threatens the operational stability of the entire system. Without predictable flows, the downstream barrages at Khanki, Qadirabad, Trimmu, and Punjnad face potential disruption to their command areas.
What May Happen Next
The cumulative effect of multiple upstream projects may continue to limit Pakistan’s ability to meet its Sustainable Development Goals, specifically targets 6.5, 6.5.1, and 6.5.2. As India continues to invite bids for fast-track projects, the predictability of water supplies for Pakistan’s wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops remains in question. Observers expect that the continued lack of upstream data will further constrain Pakistan’s capacity to issue timely warnings during extreme hydrological events, potentially leading to increased economic losses and damage to critical agricultural regions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary concern regarding India’s current water projects?
The concern is not limited to a single dam or project, but rather the cumulative capability of multiple upstream projects to regulate the quantity, timing, and predictability of flows entering Pakistan.
How does the River Chenab affect Pakistan’s irrigation?
The Chenab is vital to the IBIS, carrying 25 million acre-feet of water annually and irrigating nearly 10 million acres. Its catchment is almost entirely upstream in India, leaving Pakistan with little ability to offset regulation through local runoff.
What was the result of the suspended hydrological data sharing?
The suspension hindered Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness during the 2025 flood season, increasing risks to human life and critical infrastructure.
How will these changes to regional water management affect the long-term agricultural output of the Indus Basin?
