Iran’s Shadow Ruler: Ali Larijani and the Looming Threat of War
As tensions with the United States escalate, a quiet power shift has occurred within Iran. While President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly acknowledges his limitations (“I am a doctor, not a politician”), Ali Larijani, a veteran political figure, has steadily consolidated control, effectively becoming the nation’s de facto leader. This development comes amidst preparations for potential conflict and contingency planning for the survival of the Iranian regime.
The Rise of Larijani: From Security Chief to Shadow Governor
In early January, facing widespread protests and the threat of U.S. Military action, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei entrusted Larijani, head of Iran’s security services, with directing the country. Larijani’s influence has grown consistently in recent months. He oversaw the suppression of recent protests, manages relations with key allies like Russia, and now directly supervises nuclear negotiations with Washington. His role extends to crafting a contingency plan for governing Iran should war with the United States erupt.
Larijani’s increasing visibility is contrasted by the diminishing presence of President Pezeshkian, who reportedly even sought Larijani’s approval to lift internet restrictions impacting e-commerce – a striking admission of his limited authority.
Preparing for the Inevitable: Military Posture and Succession Planning
Iranian officials believe a U.S. Military attack is “inevitable and imminent,” despite ongoing diplomatic talks. All Iranian armed forces are reportedly on high alert. Iran is strategically repositioning missile launchers along its borders with Iraq, targeting Israel, and along its southern coast in the Persian Gulf, aiming at U.S. Military bases and other regional targets. Periodic airspace closures are occurring for missile testing, and military maneuvers have briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
Beyond military preparations, the regime is focused on its own political survival. Khamenei has reportedly identified three potential successors, though Larijani is not believed to be among them due to his lack of high-ranking clerical status. However, Larijani is a key member of Khamenei’s inner circle, alongside figures like Yahya Rahim Safavi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has been designated to lead the armed forces in the event of conflict.
Who is Ali Larijani?
Ali Larijani, 67, is a veteran politician and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He currently serves as the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He has been a consistent figure in Iranian politics for decades, known for his hardline stance and close ties to the Supreme Leader.
Internal Security and Potential for Unrest
Should war break out, Iran plans to deploy special police units, intelligence agents, and Basij militia members (often in civilian clothes) to major cities. These forces would establish checkpoints to prevent internal unrest and identify potential foreign agents. The regime is bracing for potential widespread protests, recalling the violent suppression of past demonstrations, including the alleged killing of at least 7,000 unarmed protestors in recent years.
A Contingency for Leadership: The “Delcy of Iran”
Perhaps most revealing is the regime’s contingency planning for leadership succession should Khamenei and his cabinet be incapacitated. Larijani tops the list of potential replacements, followed by Ghalibaf, and surprisingly, former President Hassan Rouhani, who had previously fallen out of favor. This suggests a pragmatic, if unpalatable, approach to ensuring continuity of power.
FAQ
Q: Who is currently in charge of Iran?
A: While Masoud Pezeshkian is the president, Ali Larijani is effectively running the country, having been entrusted with leadership by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Q: Is Iran preparing for war?
A: Yes, Iran is actively preparing for a potential military conflict with the United States, repositioning missiles and placing its armed forces on high alert.
Q: Who would lead Iran if Khamenei were unable to?
A: Ali Larijani is considered the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, followed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and, unexpectedly, former President Hassan Rouhani.
Q: What is the role of the Basij militia?
A: The Basij militia, a subsidiary of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, would be deployed to maintain order and suppress potential unrest during a conflict.
Pro Tip: Understanding the internal dynamics within Iran is crucial for interpreting its foreign policy decisions and assessing the risks of escalation.
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