Six months after U.S. and Israeli strikes began, the Iran conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate marked by a sealed Strait of Hormuz, rising fuel prices, and a shifting U.S. strategy leaning heavily on economic pressure as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings decline.
When President Donald Trump authorized military strikes against Iran in late February, he initially forecast it would last four to five weeks. On Feb. 28, President Donald Trump declared the United States and Israel had launched military attacks on Iran. On March 1, Trump said the Iran war would last four to five weeks.
Six months later, that conflict has morphed into a prolonged confrontation centered largely on the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, where the economic fallout is reaching American drivers, farmers, and global markets.
The war that President Donald Trump has called a little excursion
has become a deeply unpopular stalemate that threatens to derail his presidency. Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the conflict that Trump once predicted would be over in four weeks. Now, in apparent recognition that further military strikes won’t force concessions from Iran, the U.S. is reverting to a campaign of economic pressure in hopes of further weakening Iran’s government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies it’s unlikely the U.S. will launch new attacks for the time being.
Strait of Hormuz Closures and Global Oil Volatility
The waterway’s closure remains the central friction point of the war. Iran seized on it as a chokepoint for the global economy and it has been largely closed since the war started, driving up prices for fuel and fertilizer needed for farms and creating economic and political pressure in the U.S. Iran’s Hormuz closure cut vessel traffic from 130 to just 8 ships daily, blocking a route that carries one-fifth of global oil supply. Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the strait, according to the United Nations. The disruption of freight through the Strait of Hormuz has cut into vital shipments of global fertilizer exports, notably urea and ammonia, two major nitrogen fertilizers. The fertilizer shortage has raised prices, affecting farmers and food production.
Crude oil and fuel markets have swung wildly in response. Gas prices rose as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz declined. Gasoline prices generally rise and fall with the price of crude oil, the principal cost for gasoline. Global oil prices hit $100 a barrel July 23 after Iranian-supported Houthi attacks. The Houthis, a political-religious faction in Yemen, announced a Red Sea blockade July 20, controlling a narrow waterway known as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 that We've got a spike in oil prices today that I don't really understand.
He called the move “noise” and expressed confidence in the administration’s broader fiscal approach, according to Mediaite, Raw Story and Fox News. At the moment of the remark, WTI crude was trading at $88.15 as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026, according to CNBC. Bessent dismissed WTI crude’s spike to $88 as ‘noise’ he can’t explain, one day after Trump announced sweeping sanctions targeting Iran’s oil networks. The war between the United States, Israel and Iran nears its six-month mark on Aug. 28, 2026. Reporting Thursday tied the intraday jump to Iran’s pledge to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, though Bessent did not connect the two. Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov said literally everyone else knows
what is driving the spike, and Rep. Ted Lieu tied the move to the conflict, saying the cause starts with W and ends in R.
U.S. gas prices hit $4.09 per gallon as Iran demands sanctions relief and war reparations before agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic Warfare and Sanctions Escalation
With military strikes yielding diminishing returns, the administration announced new sanctions against Iran and its allies Aug. 25 as economic pressure to force Tehran to accept its demands, though the White House has not ruled out further military action. On Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026, President Trump announced an “Economic D-Dayagainst Iran, describing a
crushing economic operation” involving Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale,
targeting Iranian financial institutions, businesses, airports, government entities, oil-smuggling networks, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies.
Domestic Political Fallout and Voter Sentiment
The protracted conflict is creating severe domestic political headwinds for the administration. Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, as rising gas prices have undercut his 2024 campaign promise to lower costs for Americans. Trump, who campaigned on a promise to end wars, has argued that Iran’s missile buildup and nuclear ambitions required action, but he has not persuaded most voters. Just 31% of the country approve of the conflict, according to the polling. That’s a lower number than other recent U.S. conflicts at a similar stage, including the war in Afghanistan, which had approval ratings above 50% for years in Gallup polls. Voter anger over high prices poses a problem for Trump’s Republican Party before November’s midterm elections, when it must defend narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. The conflict has also widened a rift between more isolationist Republicans, who want to see a quick end, and Republican lawmakers who believe Trump must see the mission through.
Consumer confidence and daily living expenses have also taken a direct hit. The Iran war caused food price increases as a consequence of higher costs for fertilizer and transportation, meaning it now costs more to eat at home and in restaurants. It also costs more to drive as gas prices rose alongside declining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Military Attrition and Unresolved Nuclear Stockpiles
When President Donald Trump launched the war with Iran in late February, he initially forecast it would last four to five weeks. Six months later, there’s still no off-ramp in sight despite Trump’s repeated assertions that the war has been won or a deal to resolve it was nearly complete. A June memorandum of understanding designed to pave the way to end the war has fallen by the wayside. U.S. stockpiles of key weapons have diminished and the Trump administration has pivoted to pressuring Iran economically rather than launching more strikes. As the shape of the war has morphed over the last half year, so have the goals for the conflict, with reopening the Strait of Hormuz emerging as a prime goal even though it was not one of Trump’s original objectives.
The U.S. has had tactical success on its goals to degrade Iran’s military capabilities, but some of the other key objectives Trump laid out at the start of the conflict remain unfulfilled while others have shifted. Last June, Trump declared that the U.S. had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. When the war started, his aides justified the strikes by warning that Iran had been just weeks away from developing a bomb. One of the most pressing questions has been what will be done with a stockpile of about 970 pounds (440 kilograms) of enriched uranium that Tehran could potentially use for a weapon. The material is believed to be buried under three sites bombed by the U.S. and Israel last year, and Trump said in a May 29 social media post that it would be retrieved by the U.S.
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