PARIS – A senior official with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) stated Thursday that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is unlikely to topple the current clerical leadership without a concurrent popular uprising from within the country.
Internal Resistance Key to Change
Mohammad Mohaddesin, head of foreign policy at the NCRI, argued that bombing campaigns alone have proven ineffective. He stated that both a previous 12-day conflict and the current war, now in its 12th day, demonstrate that aerial attacks are insufficient to overthrow the regime.
Mohaddesin emphasized the need for broad support from the Iranian population, stating, “Even if you have 50,000 armed soldiers on the ground, you need the support of Iranian people. You need a popular uprising.”
The NCRI official also dismissed the likelihood of a U.S. Ground troop deployment. He acknowledged his group alone cannot achieve regime change, but believes mass protests – similar to those suppressed in January – could resume following a cessation of bombing and potentially alter the political landscape.
Conflict’s Impact and Regional Implications
The conflict has already resulted in approximately 2,000 deaths in Iran, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has caused significant damage to the nation’s military and security infrastructure. Iran has retaliated, disrupting global energy markets and transport, and spreading the conflict throughout the Middle East.
According to the NCRI official, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated its power and is actively threatening to suppress any internal unrest.
Israeli officials have stated their objective is to weaken Iran’s security apparatus, ostensibly to empower the Iranian people to determine their own future.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the NCRI believe is necessary to overthrow the Iranian regime?
The NCRI believes a popular uprising, supported by internal resistance, is necessary to overthrow the Iranian regime, arguing that bombing alone is insufficient.
What is the current status of the conflict?
The conflict is in its 12th day and has resulted in approximately 2,000 deaths in Iran, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded to attacks by disrupting global energy markets and transport.
What is the NCRI’s history?
The NCRI, also known as Mujahideen-e-Khalq, was listed as a terrorist organization by the United States until 2012 and is currently banned in Iran.
As the conflict continues, what role will internal dissent play in shaping Iran’s future?
