WASHINGTON.— U.S. Intelligence indicates that the leadership of Iran remains largely intact and is not at risk of collapse in the short term, following nearly two weeks of relentless strikes by the United States and Israel, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports offer a “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapsing and that it “maintains control of the Iranian population,” said one of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss the U.S. Intelligence findings.
With political pressure mounting due to sharply rising oil prices, U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested he will end “soon” the largest U.S. Military operation since 2003. But finding an acceptable way out of the war could prove difficult if hardline leaders in Iran remain firmly entrenched.
The intelligence reports underscore the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the death of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28, the first day of the U.S. And Israeli attacks.
Israeli officials, in closed-door conversations, have also acknowledged there is no certainty that the war will lead to the collapse of the clerical government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources emphasized that the situation on the ground is fluid and that dynamics within Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Since the war began, the United States and Israel have attacked a variety of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear facilities, and members of the ruling elite.
The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. Announcing the start of the U.S. Operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take control of their government,” but his top advisors have since denied that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the attacks have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large sectors of the economy.
However, U.S. Intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and interim leaders who took power after Khamenei’s death maintain control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of high-ranking Shia clerics, declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader earlier this week.
Israel does not intend to allow any remnants of the vintage government to remain intact, a fourth source familiar with the matter said.
It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign could bring down the government. It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow the population within Iran to protest safely in the streets, the source said.
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. Troops to Iran.
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the United States about how and whether to attack Iranian security forces in the west of the country.
Such a raid could put pressure on Iranian security forces in that area, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, head of the Iranian Kurdistan Komala Party – part of a coalition of six Iranian Kurdish parties – said in an interview Wednesday that the organizations are highly organized within Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive support from the United States.
Mohtadi said he had received reports from within Iranian Kurdistan that units of the IRGC and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks for fear of U.S. And Israeli attacks.
“We are witnessing tangible signs of weakness in the Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent U.S. Intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security forces, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
The intelligence indicates that these groups lack both the firepower and the number of fighters, they said.
The Kurdistan Regional Government, which administers the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In recent days, Iranian Kurdish groups have asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. Lawmakers to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said Saturday he had ruled out allowing Iranian Kurdish groups to enter Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does U.S. Intelligence say about the Iranian leadership?
U.S. Intelligence indicates that the leadership of Iran remains largely intact and is not at risk of collapse in the short term.
Has the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei impacted the stability of the Iranian government?
Reports indicate the Iranian clerical leadership remains cohesive despite the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
What is the Trump administration’s position on sending troops to Iran?
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. Troops to Iran.
As the conflict continues, what conditions might be necessary for a significant shift in power within Iran?