The Islamic Republic of Iran is conditioning its compliance with a U.S.-brokered Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on an immediate end to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP), Iranian officials are leveraging their control over the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the United States into forcing an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Why Is Iran Linking the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon?
Tehran is using the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining chip to compel the U.S. to restrain Israel. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran views the continued Israeli presence in southern Lebanon as a direct violation of the MoU. By threatening to reimpose transit restrictions or halt the reopening process in the strait, Iran aims to force a shift in U.S. policy. According to the ISW-CTP analysis, Iranian leaders are banking on reports that the Trump administration prioritizes the stability of the current deal, hoping that pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will result in a total Israeli withdrawal from the 10-kilometer-deep “security zone” in southern Lebanon.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not permit states bordering international straits to charge fees for transit. Despite this, Iranian officials have signaled plans to reinstate “service fees” for commercial vessels once the initial 60-day grace period of the MoU expires.
How Is the IDF Responding to Iranian Demands?
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have rejected Iranian preconditions, maintaining their operational tempo in southern Lebanon. On June 18, the IDF confirmed it would remain in its established security zone to neutralize Hezbollah threats against northern Israeli residents. According to Reuters, Israeli officials held discussions with the U.S. regarding this continued deployment, while Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly informed President Donald Trump that Israel will not vacate southern Lebanon until its security requirements are fully met. This stance directly contradicts the interpretation held by Tehran and Hezbollah, who claim the MoU mandates a total Israeli retreat.
What Are the Risks of Iran’s Internal Power Struggles?
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be distancing himself from the potential failure of the U.S.-Iran agreement. In a June 18 statement, Khamenei noted he authorized the MoU but maintained a “different opinion in principle,” explicitly shifting responsibility for the deal’s success to President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). Analysts at CTP-ISW suggest this move is a calculated effort to avoid domestic political fallout if the agreement collapses. By framing the negotiations as the purview of the president, the Supreme Leader retains the ability to pivot if the “Axis of Resistance” faces further setbacks.
Is Iraq’s Militia Reorganization Shifting Power?
The Iraqi government is currently navigating a complex internal restructuring of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). On June 18, PMC Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh appointed Ali al Aqili to oversee the “disengagement and reorganization” of Saraya al Salam brigades. This follows a period of intense friction between Saraya al Salam, led by Muqtada al Sadr, and Iranian-backed groups like Asaib Ahl al Haq. According to CTP-ISW, while the Iraqi government claims these moves are part of a broader disarmament effort, the fact that militia-affiliated commanders are overseeing their own reorganization risks further embedding Iranian influence within Iraqi state security institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Israel a signatory to the U.S.-Iran MoU?
No. While the agreement includes language implying that Israel and Hezbollah are participants, the document is specifically between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Can Iran legally charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz?
According to UNCLOS, the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, not territorial water. International law prohibits bordering states from restricting transit or imposing tolls for passage.
Why is the U.S. pressuring the Iraqi government?
The U.S. has conditioned economic support for Iraq on the government’s ability to dismantle Iranian-backed militia networks and secure state control over national defense assets.
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