The global food system is currently facing a volatility shock that extends far beyond the immediate theater of conflict. As the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran continues to disrupt critical trade arteries, the ripple effects are being felt most acutely in the soil of sub-Saharan Africa. The crisis isn’t just about the absence of food; it is about the absence of the inputs required to grow it.
The Danger of the Global Auction
When essential commodities become scarce, the market often shifts from a standard trade model to what Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, describes as a global auction
. In this scenario, supplies are not allocated based on necessitate or long-term stability, but to the highest bidder.
“The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International
For regions like Europe, the impact is buffered by optimized soil health and government intervention. However, for the poorest communities in Africa, this auction mechanism creates a precarious situation. Because these nations are massive food importers and lack the financial leverage to compete in a high-price environment, they risk being priced out of the market entirely.
The Ammonia Bottleneck and Supply Chain Fragility
The current crisis highlights a dangerous dependency on ammonia, the foundational raw material for nitrogenous fertilizers. Because ammonia is toxic and hazardous to store during wartime, production can be halted abruptly to mitigate risk. For instance, some nations, including Qatar, have suspended production entirely.
This creates a “double whammy” effect: not only are existing supplies choked, but the capacity to create new supplies is frozen. According to Holsether, restarting these plants is not an overnight process; it can take weeks or months to restart
.
The financial impact has been immediate. Since the conflict began at the complete of February, the price of urea has surged by between 60% and 70%. Even as wealthy nations can absorb these costs through subsidies or reserves, countries like Ethiopia and Kenya remain heavily exposed, facing a critical shortage just as the sowing season begins.
Bridging the Subsidy Divide
A stark contrast has emerged in how different regions are managing the crisis. The European Union has moved quickly to protect its agricultural sector, loosening state subsidy rules and providing grant aid of up to €50,000 (£43,200) to individual farmers to offset the rising costs of fuel and fertilizer.
In sub-Saharan Africa, such safety nets are virtually non-existent. This disparity is compounded by the state of the land. While European farmers can occasionally reduce fertilizer apply without a catastrophic drop in yield due to optimized soil, African farmers are often under-fertilising to begin with
.
Future Trends: The Shift Toward Agricultural Sovereignty
The current instability is likely to accelerate several long-term trends in global agriculture as nations seek to decouple their food security from volatile geopolitical zones.
1. Diversification of Fertilizer Sourcing
The reliance on the Gulf states for 35% of urea is now viewed as a strategic liability. Expect to see increased investment in green ammonia production—using renewable energy to create fertilizer—distributed across more diverse geographic locations, including within Africa itself.
2. Acceleration of Regenerative Agriculture
As chemical inputs become prohibitively expensive, there will be a forced pivot toward regenerative practices. This includes crop rotation, cover cropping, and the use of bio-fertilizers that restore soil health naturally, reducing the need for nitrogenous imports.
3. Precision Farming in Emerging Markets
To maximize every gram of fertilizer, the adoption of precision agriculture—using AI and satellite data to apply nutrients only where needed—will likely move from high-income farms to larger-scale operations in developing regions to prevent waste.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does a war in the Middle East affect food in Africa?
Much of the world’s nitrogen-based fertilizer, specifically urea and ammonia, is produced in the Gulf states. When production is suspended or trade routes are disrupted, prices spike, and supply drops, leaving import-dependent regions like Africa unable to afford essential nutrients for their crops.
What is the “global auction” mentioned by experts?
A global auction occurs when a commodity becomes so scarce that it is sold to whoever can pay the highest price, regardless of the need. This systematically displaces the poorest countries who cannot compete with the budgets of wealthier nations.
Can farmers simply stop using chemical fertilizers?
In optimized soils (like many in Europe), some reduction is possible. However, in many parts of Africa, the soil is already under-fertilized. Removing these inputs entirely would likely lead to dramatic drops in crop yields and potential famine.
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How can the international community better protect vulnerable food systems from geopolitical shocks? Do you believe the shift toward organic farming is a viable solution for global food security?
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