Rami Ayyub, Alexander Cornwell, Nayera Abdallah and Maha El Dahan
Updated
Jerusalem: Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran and Iran responded with more missile barrages on Sunday, a day after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pitched the Middle East and the global economy into deepening uncertainty.
US and Israeli strikes – and Iranian retaliation – sent shockwaves through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf.
US President Donald Trump said 48 leaders had been killed in the strikes on Iran.
Trump confirmed US involvement, stating, “He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do.”
The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics. For 36 years, he championed uranium enrichment and a fiery hostility towards the US and Israel. His absence creates a power vacuum with unpredictable consequences. The immediate response – retaliatory strikes and heightened regional tensions – underscores the fragility of the current situation.
Israel’s stated aim is to undermine the Iranian government, potentially leading to its collapse. This strategy carries significant risks, including prolonged instability and the rise of more radical elements.
Economic Fallout: Oil, Shipping, and Global Trade
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is a major concern. Disruption to this vital trade route could lead to sharp increases in crude oil prices and broader economic repercussions. The impact is already being felt in sectors like shipping and air travel, with hundreds of vessels rerouting and major airports closing.
The US has reportedly hit over 1000 Iranian targets, and further escalation could exacerbate these economic pressures.
The Role of US Intelligence and Military Action
The operation was a joint US-Israeli effort, with Israeli Air Force jets targeting Khamenei’s office compound based on intelligence from the Israel Defense Forces. The CIA played a crucial role in tracking Khamenei’s movements and identifying the opportune moment for the strike.
Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate with new Iranian leadership, but likewise warned of further strikes “with a force never seen before” if Iran retaliates.
Domestic Reactions Within Iran
The response within Iran is divided. Thousands have mourned Khamenei, while others have celebrated his death, demonstrating deep internal divisions. Protests and unrest are likely to continue, potentially leading to further instability.
The formation of a leadership council suggests an attempt to maintain order in the wake of Khamenei’s death, but its long-term effectiveness remains uncertain.
International Responses and Potential Alliances
Russia and China have condemned Khamenei’s killing. The leaders of Britain, France, and Germany have expressed readiness to defend their interests in the region.
The US has requested permission from Britain to use British bases for defensive strikes against Iranian missiles.
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