Recent Italian political polling data reveals a shifting electoral landscape where current governing parties face declines while the progressive opposition and emerging political forces register gains, according to the latest Ixè survey.
Electoral Shifts for Governing and Progressive Parties
According to the Ixè survey, Fratelli d’Italia remains the leading political party in Italy despite dropping to 26.1 percent, which marks a 1.4 percent decrease since July. This decline places the party led by Giorgia Meloni back at levels seen four years ago, reflecting a nearly three-point drop when compared to the 2024 European elections. Other members of the current government coalition also experienced declines: Forza Italia dropped to 7.6 percent (losing 0.1 percent), the Lega fell to 4.6 percent (down 0.5 percent), and Noi Moderati settled at 1 percent (down 0.1 percent).
On the opposing side, parties comprising the progressive broad coalition expanded their voter base during the summer months. The Partito Democratico (PD) rose to 22 percent (a 0.6 percent increase from July), while the Movimento 5 Stelle climbed to 13.6 percent (up 0.8 percent). Additional gains were recorded by Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra (AVS) at 7.3 percent, Italia Viva at 2.4 percent, and +Europa at 1.6 percent. Combined, the progressive coalition reaches 46.9 percent in the aggregate data, outperforming the center-right coalition’s 39.6 percent.
Did You Know? The Ixè survey notes that the progressive coalition’s aggregate score of 46.9 percent excludes contributions from smaller centrist lists such as Progetto Civico or Più Uno.
The Rise of Futuro Nazionale and Vannacci
The polling data highlights the steady ascent of Futuro Nazionale, associated with the former general, which has stabilized as Italy’s fourth political force. According to Ixè, the group led by Vannacci reached 8.1 percent, marking a 1 percent increase since July and tripling its consensus since February, when the polling firm first tracked the movement. Observers note that the votes lost by the current government parties likely shifted toward Futuro Nazionale. Meanwhile, Azione sits slightly lower at 3.1 percent, continuing to position itself outside the two major coalitions.
Expert Insight: The current polling margin of over seven points between the progressive coalition and the center-right indicates that, under the electoral framework currently in the legislative approval process, the opposition bloc could secure a clear majority in both houses of Parliament, provided the center-right does not form an alliance with Futuro Nazionale.
Comparative Polling Insights From Lab21
Alternative polling data reported by fanpage.it through the Lab21 survey similarly captures an evolving political balance. Lab21 places the centrosinistra at 44.2 percent and the centrodestra at 41.4 percent, with Fratelli d’Italia leading individual parties at 28.1 percent and Vannacci registering at 8 percent. Furthermore, Lab21 identifies a notable trend among voters under 35, where support for Giorgia Meloni drops to 24.1 percent compared to her 30.7 percent overall average, while Elly Schlein rises to 17.3 percent and Giuseppe Conte reaches 14.7 percent among young adults.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current standing of Fratelli d’Italia according to the Ixè survey?
Fratelli d’Italia stands at 26.1 percent, representing a 1.4 percent decrease compared to the July survey.
How much has Futuro Nazionale grown since February?
According to the Ixè data, public consensus for Futuro Nazionale has tripled since February, reaching 8.1 percent in the latest survey.
What are the aggregate coalition percentages reported by Ixè?
The progressive coalition totals 46.9 percent, while the center-right coalition registers at 39.6 percent.
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