Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing significant political pressure following three major challenges this week. The way these issues have been managed has led some colleagues to speculate about a possible leadership change just months before the Victorian election.
Integrity Law Reform Debates
The first test involved a response to a parliamentary inquiry regarding Victoria’s integrity laws. Premier Allan has agreed to grant the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (Ibac) “follow-the-dollar” powers to investigate public money spending by private contractors and subcontractors.
The agreement also includes a broader definition of corrupt conduct, which is intended to make it easier to launch investigations and hold public hearings. However, some Labor MPs have suggested that these reforms may have come too late, noting that Ibac has been seeking such powers for a decade.
The timing is particularly sensitive following reports that union corruption could have cost taxpayers up to $15bn. One Labor MP, speaking on the condition of anonymity, stated:
“It could have cauterised an issue that was causing us to bleed votes,”
The timeline for these reforms remains a point of contention. If Labor wins the November election, the reforms may not be legislated until late 2027. Conversely, if the opposition wins, they intend to introduce follow-the-money powers in December, though they have not yet committed to changing the definition of corruption.
Disputes Over Political Donation Laws
The second challenge involved the state’s political donation laws. Since the High Court struck down a section of the Electoral Act in April—removing a previous $4,970 cap over a four-year term—there have been no limits or disclosure requirements on donations.
After negotiations with the Liberal leader, Jess Wilson, and shadow attorney general, James Newbury, stalled, Allan reached a deal with the Greens and crossbench MPs. The new framework imposes a $7,500 donation cap per donor over four years, reintroduces disclosure measures, and increases public funding.
The Coalition has heavily criticized the new laws, labeling the bill “rigged,” “dodgy,” “shonky,” and a “dirty racket.” Deputy Liberal leader David Southwick further accused the government of attempting to “steal an election.”
Legal challenges to the new laws appear likely. Independent candidate Paul Hopper has engaged lawyers to challenge the legislation, and the Coalition is also considering legal options. Independent candidates Sophie Torney and Shima Ibuki, who received significant donations from Climate 200 during the period without donation limits, confirmed they must now return those funds or risk breaching the law.
Ministerial Character Reference Controversy
The third test for the Premier involved revelations regarding newly appointed minister Luba Grigorovitch. It was revealed that Grigorovitch had written 33 character references, some of which she now regrets.
The references included individuals such as a taxi driver who assaulted female passengers, two men accused of domestic violence, a supporter of former Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a man fined for selling counterfeit clothing. The opposition has used question time to call for her removal from the cabinet, attempting to link the matter to her friendship with former construction union leader John Setka.
The Premier has stated that the matter has been addressed, following a vow from the minister for youth, carers and volunteers to never write another character reference. Despite this, some MPs expressed frustration with a perceived cycle of damaging headlines.
Future Outlook for Leadership
The combination of these controversies, alongside poor polling, weak personal ratings for Allan, and rising support for One Nation, has created anxiety among some members of the party. Some MPs, fearing the loss of their seats, have suggested that her leadership could be at risk.
While there is currently a lack of a viable candidate capable of uniting the party’s left and right factions, one MP noted:
“It’s not too late.”
Moving forward, the government may face continued legal battles over electoral laws and ongoing scrutiny regarding integrity and ministerial conduct, which could further impact the party’s standing ahead of the November election.
Frequently Asked Questions
What new powers will Ibac receive under the proposed reforms?
Ibac will receive “follow-the-dollar” powers to investigate the spending of public money by private contractors and subcontractors, as well as a broader definition of corrupt conduct.
What is the new cap on political donations in Victoria?
Under the new deal struck with the Greens and crossbench MPs, there is a $7,500 donation cap per donor over a four-year period.
Why is there speculation about a leadership change in the Labor Party?
Speculation is driven by a series of damaging headlines, poor polling, weak personal ratings for Premier Jacinta Allan, and rising support for One Nation.
Will these political challenges reshape the upcoming Victorian election?
