Democrat James Talarico has widened his lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas, according to a ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll published Sept. 17. The survey, conducted between Sept. 8 and 11 among 614 likely voters, shows Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43%—a 6-point advantage that falls outside the poll’s 4.3 percentage point margin of error.
The latest data indicates a shift in voter sentiment, with 48% of respondents believing Talarico will win the election compared to 45% who favor Paxton. According to ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren, this movement is evident among independent voters, who now favor Talarico 64% to 24%, an increase from a 23-point lead (53-30%) recorded in July. Additionally, the percentage of voters without an opinion on Talarico dropped from 25% in June to 10% in September.
Candidate Favorability and Party Support
The Texas Pulse poll reveals a divergence in candidate favorability. Talarico holds a positive rating of 50% to 39%, up from 46-39% in July. Conversely, Paxton has a negative favorability rating of 38% to 55%, a slight decline from 40-52% in July. Hendren noted that Paxton’s bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party
, stating that while nearly all Democrats support Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans support Paxton.
This race follows a Republican primary in which Ken Paxton won a victory over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. Talarico previously secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, 2026, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett 52.4% to 46.2%.
Comparative Polling and Race Outlook
While the latest Texas Pulse poll shows a clear lead, other September surveys have shown a tighter contest. An NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll placed Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, which was within the 4 percentage point margin of error. Earlier in September, an Overton Strategies poll conducted from Aug. 24 to Aug. 26 found the candidates in a statistical dead heat at 50% each.
Other data points include:
- A Texas Public Opinion Research survey from late August showed Talarico leading 48% to 42%.
- The RealClearPolling average has shown Talarico maintaining a narrow overall lead in recent months.
The stakes are high for the Democratic Party, which has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and has not won a U.S. Senate election in the state since 1988. According to James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, this race is different from any statewide race seen in a couple of generations.
Voter Demographics and Key Issues
The path to victory for Talarico involves critical demographic coalitions. In the NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo poll, Talarico led with Latino voters by 18 points (54% to 36%). However, some Democratic figures have expressed concern over support from Black voters. Ashley Etienne, former communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris, stated that winning Texas as a Democrat requires overperforming with Black voters, warning of mild enthusiasm
in that community. Representative Jasmine Crockett also questioned if excitement exists within the Black community regarding Talarico’s candidacy.
In response to these challenges, Talarico announced a $25 million get-out-the-vote effort targeting Black voters in July.
Regarding policy, the NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo survey found that economic issues and immigration are primary drivers for voters.
Concurrent Gubernatorial Race
The race for governor also shows a competitive landscape between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo poll showed Abbott leading 48% to 41%.
Hinojosa has indicated that winning 64% of the Latino vote—a benchmark set by Beto O’Rourke in his 2018 run against Ted Cruz—would be enough to win the governorship. In the recent NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo poll, Hinojosa led with Latinos by 13 points (52% to 39%).