Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has arrived in Canberra for her first official visit to Australia following a landslide election victory in February. The visit comes amid growing calls from defence experts for Australia to establish a strategic fallback plan for its naval capabilities as it navigates the complexities of the AUKUS pact.
The Case for a Submarine Plan B
Richard Gray, a former deputy director of defence intelligence, has urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to explore leasing conventional submarines from Japan. Gray suggests this could serve as a Plan B should the AUKUS agreement encounter major hurdles.
The current Australian strategy involves three compounding risk areas: extending the life of ageing Collins-class submarines, acquiring Virginia-class submarines from the United States and developing a new nuclear-powered class with the United Kingdom.
Gray warns that failures in these areas could leave Australia without a sovereign submarine capability. He argues that leasing advanced conventional boats from Japan could prevent a potential decade-long gap in capability until long-range nuclear-powered vessels arrive.
However, not all officials support the idea of a secondary plan. Senior defence official Hugh Jeffrey stated in March that the department has been directed to pursue AUKUS and would not venture into the space of alternative plans.
Economic Security and Regional Stability
Talks between Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Takaichi are expected to focus heavily on economic security. Key priorities include partnering on critical minerals and securing energy and gas supplies following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
These measures are intended to minimize the risk of economic coercion by China. Australia has already demonstrated deepening defence ties with Japan by signing a contract to purchase Mogami-class frigates.
Navigating the Indo-Pacific Power Vacuum
Shingo Yamagami, Japan’s former ambassador to Australia from 2020 to 2023, has emphasized the need for Australia and Japan to speak with one voice. He suggests this unity is vital to prevent authoritarian states from exploiting a power vacuum in the region.
Yamagami noted that with the Trump administration focusing on the war with Iran, US attention to the Indo-Pacific may diminish. This shift could increase the likelihood of regional adventurism.
The two leaders bring different perspectives to the table regarding China. While Albanese seeks to stabilize the relationship, Takaichi has taken a more hawkish approach. Last year, she told the Japanese parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be an existential crisis for Japan
, potentially justifying military action.
This stance previously led the Chinese government to cut off the supply of rare earths to Japan in retaliation, though the position remained popular with the Japanese public.
Future Outlook
The trajectory of the Japan-Australia relationship may depend on how the two leaders align their differing views on China. A possible next step could involve more formalised defence cooperation beyond the current frigate contracts.
If the funding challenges mentioned by a recent British parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS persist, the Australian government may be more likely to consider the leasing options proposed by analysts to avoid a capability void.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is a “Plan B” being suggested for Australia’s submarines?
Former defence official Richard Gray suggests a fallback plan is necessary because the AUKUS plan involves three separate but compounding risks: extending the life of Collins-class submarines, acquiring Virginia-class boats from the US, and developing a new nuclear class with the UK.
What is Japan’s current submarine production capacity?
Japan has two active production lines that together produce one advanced submarine each year, with the potential to increase production further.
What economic issues are the two Prime Ministers expected to discuss?
The leaders are expected to focus on bolstering economic security through critical minerals partnerships and shoring up energy and gas supplies in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Do you believe Australia should prioritize the long-term goals of AUKUS or seek immediate security through leases with regional partners?
