Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Auckland late tomorrow. His visit marks the first time an Indian prime minister has visited New Zealand in four decades. His visit coincides with the release of an Infometrics report, commissioned by the Waitakere Indian Association, which values the Kiwi Indian community’s annual economic contribution at $37 billion—roughly 8.6% of New Zealand’s total GDP for the year ending March 2025.
Economic impact and the diaspora’s role
The Infometrics report, sponsored by the Ethnic Communities Ministry and the Indian High Commission, highlights a significant shift in the community’s economic footprint. The community’s contribution supported more than 220,000 full-time equivalent jobs, with Indian businesses accounting for just under three-quarters of the total. Ministry for Ethnic Communities chief executive Pratima Namasivayam noted that the community is increasingly entrepreneurial and highly qualified, with 46% holding at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 27% of the general population.
As the community population grew 27% between 2018 and 2023 to reach 330,000, it has overtaken the ethnic Chinese community as the largest minority group outside of Māori and Pacific peoples. Projections suggest this population could reach 626,000 by 2043, accounting for roughly 10% of the total population.
Trade agreement and diplomatic significance
The upcoming visit serves as a capstone to the government’s push for a free trade agreement with India, which is expected to be signed in the first half of next year. Sunil Kaushal, president of the Waitakere Indian Association, stated that the diaspora is essential to unlocking the benefits of this deal, acting as a bridge between the two nations’ cultures and economies.
Trade Minister Todd McClay reported that exporters are already seeing a “halo effect” from the impending agreement. The deal is set to provide New Zealand access to India’s rising middle class, particularly in sectors like fintech, professional services, tourism, and international education. The agreement also includes provisions ensuring that New Zealand cannot impose enrollment caps on Indian students and guarantees consistent in-study and post-study work rights.
Challenges and future outlook
Despite the economic growth, the report identified lingering obstacles, including retail crime targeting small business owners, migrant exploitation, and difficulties for new arrivals—such as Indian-trained nurses—to secure employment in their fields. Additionally, the doubling of student visa fees to $750 in October 2024 has introduced new financial pressures for families.
Tourism figures show resilience, with 81,000 Indian visitor arrivals in 2025, a 19% increase over pre-pandemic peaks. Nearly half of these visitors came to see family and friends. While overall international student enrollments remain 12% below 2019 levels, the quality of study has shifted, with master’s-level enrollments rising 228%.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, while addressing media on Monday, condemned political rhetoric targeting immigrants, describing them as people of “ambition and inspiration.” As the government moves forward with the trade deal, Foreign Minister Winston Peters is not scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Modi, an absence the Prime Minister characterized as “quite normal.”
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