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La Nina Has Started, This Is The Peak Time Prediction According to BMKG

KOMPAS.com – Indonesian President Joko Widodo reminded his staff on October 13, 2020 to be vigilant and anticipate potential disasters in the rainy season.

Quoted Kompas.com, Tuesday (13/10/2020), Jokowi said that the accumulated rainfall in 2020 will increase by 20-40 percent.

“Therefore, I want all of us to prepare ourselves, anticipating the possibility of a hydrometeorological disaster,” he said when opening a limited meeting on preparation for handling hydrometeorological disasters at the Merdeka Palace, Jakarta, Tuesday (10/13/2020).

Jokowi also mentioned a report from BMKG regarding the phenomenon La Nina which is predicted to lead to an increase in the accumulated monthly rainfall in Indonesia.

Also read: Jokowi Warns about La Nina, Recognizes Impacts and Things to Watch Out for

La Nina

La Nina is a global climate system anomaly that occurs with a return period ranging from 2-7 years in the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere, the sky above changes from a neutral state (normal) and lasts a minimum of 2 months.

In the La Nina phenomenon what occurs is an unusual cooling, namely the temperature anomaly exceeds -0.5 degrees Celsius in the same area.

The Head of Climate Variability Analysis of BMKG Indra Gustari explained that currently La Nina has occurred.

“Currently, La Nina has occurred,” said Indra to Kompas.com, Saturday (17/10/2020).

He said the La Nina indicator was in the form of an anomaly in the central Pacific sea surface temperature.

According to data obtained until October 10, 2020, the current temperature is below -0.5 degrees Celsius and has been going on for more than 7 decades (2 months).

Indra says the top of La Nina is predicted to occur in November-December 2020.

“Analysis and predictions of Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics show that November-December 2020 La Nina is at a moderate level,” he explained.

However, Indra said, the impact of La Nina must be seen in more detail as it affects Indonesia’s vast territory.

According to him, there are differences in impact based on location and time. Because not all areas will experience an increase in rainfall along with La Nina.

This is due to the influence / interaction with other climatic phenomena such as monsoons.

Also read: What is the La Nina Phenomenon that Can Affect Disasters in Indonesia?

Apart from La Nina, there are also El Nino events. Quoted Kompas.com, 24 May 2016, after El Nino leaves there will come La Nina. The two phenomena usually take place one after another.

El Nino, namely warming along the Pacific equator. El Nino can cause drought to storm.

However, the El Nino that follows La Nina doesn’t always happen like that. Indra said that according to predictions until mid-2021, this has not been shown.

“Until the current observational data, namely in early October, our analysis and predictions until mid-2021 have not shown a trend towards the occurrence of El Nino,” he explained.


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