In an unprecedented shift for Australian politics, One Nation has surged ahead of both Labor and the Coalition in primary vote polling. According to recent Redbridge Group/Accent Research data published in the Australian Financial Review, One Nation’s primary vote has broken through the 30% mark.
This surge comes as Labor’s vote has dropped three points to 28%, while the Coalition has seen a two-point decline to 20%. For the first time, One Nation leads all major parties on a primary vote basis, coinciding with a poll finding that a majority of Australians would not vote for either Labor or the Coalition.
A Budget Lacking Public Confidence
The realignment appears closely linked to broadly negative assessments of the recent budget. Respondents expressed concerns that the budget would be detrimental to both the country and their personal circumstances.
The dissatisfaction is particularly evident among key demographics. Only about a quarter of Generation Z respondents believe the budget will be solid for the country, while 36% describe it as bad or exceptionally bad. Similarly, only 28% of millennials view the budget as good or very good.
Gen X voters expressed the most significant negativity, with 54% stating the budget is bad or very bad, and only 6% saying This proves good for them personally. Among renters—a demographic the government has targeted—just 16% reported the budget would be good for them personally.
The Architecture of Pessimism
Beyond specific policy critiques, a pervasive national mood of despondency is underpinning this voter realignment. The polling indicates a profound loss of trust in institutions and deep skepticism regarding the motives and competence of both the government and large corporations.
This sentiment is most acute among One Nation supporters. While only 25% of all respondents believe Australia is heading in the right direction, 90% of One Nation voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. 78% of One Nation voters believe the next generation will face a worse standard of living than their parents.
When asked about the drivers of rising interest rates, 40% of respondents blamed politicians, while 20% blamed corporate CEOs. Among One Nation voters, this focus on political responsibility is even higher, at 59%.
“Politics is operating in an environment where the electorate is losing hope, so governments no longer have that sort of social licence.”
Future Outlook and Political Risks
The current environment presents significant strategic challenges for the Albanese government. Because One Nation remains untainted by a record of perceived failure in government, the party may have the capacity to capture more Labor territory if the government is perceived to lack a clear political mission.
The data suggests that if Labor is unable to define a sense of purpose or provide meaningful reform, there is a risk that its base may look toward other political forces to deliver change or disruption. The low levels of institutional trust mean the government may no longer have the latitude to operate without addressing these deep-seated public anxieties.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does One Nation’s primary vote compare to the major parties?
One Nation has surpassed 30% of the primary vote, leading Labor at 28% and the Coalition at 20%.
How has the public reacted to the recent budget?
Assessments have been broadly negative, with many respondents believing it will be bad for the country and their personal finances.
What is the general sentiment regarding Australia’s future?
There is significant pessimism, with only 25% of respondents believing the country is heading in the right direction and over half believing the next generation will have a lower standard of living than their parents.
Do you believe political parties can regain the trust of an increasingly skeptical electorate?
