Ukraine faces a critical period of risk as winter approaches, with former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warning that Vladimir Putin intends to leverage the cold season to intensify aerial attacks on energy infrastructure. According to Landsbergis, the failure to fully restore energy systems damaged in previous years leaves Kyiv vulnerable to a more severe winter crisis. While Ukraine has achieved a level of military parity that makes the conflict increasingly costly for Moscow, Landsbergis suggests the Russian leadership remains driven by non-rational strategic goals that may bypass traditional diplomatic off-ramps.
The Strategic Outlook for the Winter Season
The upcoming winter represents a deliberate tactical focus for the Kremlin. Gabrielius Landsbergis notes that Russia’s primary goal is to wait for plummeting temperatures to maximize the impact of strikes on Ukraine’s power grid. Because much of the energy infrastructure destroyed in previous waves of attacks remains unrepaired, the system’s resilience is significantly lower than in previous years.
This reality forces Kyiv into a defensive posture regarding its energy security. While Ukraine has successfully created a “military parity”—a state where the pain inflicted on both sides is roughly equal—this balance does not necessarily translate into a Russian willingness to negotiate. Landsbergis emphasizes that V. Putin operates outside the bounds of conventional rational decision-making, meaning that even a favorable military situation for Ukraine may not be sufficient to bring the Kremlin to the bargaining table.
Did you know?
Despite the ongoing conflict, European Union nations imported the most Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2025 over all the years of the war. Critics like Landsbergis argue this provides Moscow with crucial revenue that stabilizes its war economy while simultaneously signaling a lack of resolve from Western partners.
Escalation Risks and Hybrid Threats
The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with potential for increased hybrid warfare throughout the region. Landsbergis warns that September could mark the start of a new phase of escalation. The danger lies in the difficulty of predicting how Russia might use hybrid tactics—ranging from hybrid attacks to kinetic threats against neighboring NATO states—to justify internal domestic policies, such as mass mobilization.
One identified scenario involves Russian drones or military assets violating NATO borders. Such an incident could be used by the Kremlin to claim that Russia faces a direct existential threat from the Alliance. This narrative would provide a pretext for mobilizing an additional 300,000 troops, an action that could theoretically shift the front lines and place extreme pressure on cities like Kharkiv and Kherson.
The Gap Between European Policy and Front-Line Reality
There is a growing disconnect between Ukraine’s military efforts and the economic policies of the European Union. While Ukraine is exerting its highest level of pressure on Russian forces over all the years of the war, European reliance on Russian energy imports creates a contradictory signal.
According to Landsbergis, this financial support acts as a lifeline for the Russian front. By purchasing gas and maintaining commercial ties, European states are inadvertently helping to sustain the very apparatus that is targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The argument presented is clear: if the objective is to force a change in Russian behavior, the current strategy of normalized energy trade is fundamentally ineffective.
Pro Tip: Monitoring Regional Security
Observers should monitor the defensive preparations of Baltic states and Poland. As these nations increase their border security and military readiness, they are signaling a recognition of the hybrid threats that Landsbergis identifies as a core component of Russia’s long-term strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the upcoming winter considered more dangerous for Ukraine than previous ones?
Many energy infrastructure sites destroyed in earlier Russian aerial campaigns have not been fully reconstructed. This leaves the national grid with less redundancy and higher vulnerability to targeted strikes as demand for heating peaks.
Could Russia’s mobilization of 300,000 troops change the war’s outcome?
Landsbergis suggests that such a move could create significant challenges for Ukrainian forces, potentially leading to the loss of territory in high-pressure zones like the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, especially given that Ukraine also faces its own internal challenges regarding mobilization.
What role do hybrid attacks play in Russian strategy?
Hybrid attacks serve as a tool to create artificial crises. By provoking or threatening NATO members, the Kremlin aims to justify domestic mobilization by claiming that Russia is under direct attack, thereby avoiding public backlash against the costs of the war.
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