A new public opinion survey conducted by “Latvijas fakti” in collaboration with “Faktu logs” places the party AS, represented by Ministru prezidenta Andra Kulberga pārstāvētajam AS, in the lead with 15,6% support among all respondents if Saeima elections were held tomorrow. The survey, which captures voter preferences ahead of the 15th Saeima elections scheduled for the first Saturday of October, highlights distinct divides in political backing compared to previous polling data.
Voter Preferences and Party Standings
According to the “Latvijas fakti” and “Faktu logs” data, LPV would capture 8,3% of the vote, while NA stands at 7,3%. “Progresīvie” holds 7,1% support, followed closely by ZZS at 6,9%, SV/J at 6,3%, and JV with 5,9% of survey participants supporting their platform.
Further down the poll, the party “Mēs mainām noteikumus” secured 2,2% support, “Stabilitātei” reached 1,7%, and “Latvijas attīstībai” also garnered 1,7%. “Saskaņas centrs” received 1,1% backing from respondents. Three additional political groupings—”Austošā saule Latvijai”, Gobzema saraksts, and the New Conservative Party (Jaunā konservatīvā partija)—each earned under 1% of voter support. Notably, 23,1% of those surveyed remained undecided, and 10,7% stated they would not participate in the elections.
Did You Know? The “Latvijas fakti” and “Faktu logs” survey was conducted between August 21 and August 31, utilizing a stratified random sampling method that included in-person household interviews and telephone interviews with 1,058 Latvian citizens aged 18 to 74.
Methodological Differences in Polling Data
A comparison between these August survey results and a poll commissioned by Latvian Public Media and carried out by the research center “SKDS” reveals notable discrepancies in which parties cross the 5% electoral threshold. When recalculating data solely among respondents with a definite political choice, the “SKDS” poll indicated six political forces would enter parliament: AS, SV/J, “Progresīvie”, LPV, JV, and NA. Conversely, the “Latvijas faktu” and “Faktu logs” data shows ZZS successfully clearing the 5% barrier as well.
Addressing these variances, ZZS prime ministerial candidate and Economics Minister Viktors Valainis explained in an interview on the LETA podcast “Politiķi! Kas tas vispār bija?” that different polling results stem from varying methodologies, specifically pointing out discrepancies between internet surveys and telephone interviews. Valainis expressed confidence that the traditional ZZS electorate is less active online than supporters of other parties, arguing that direct town meetings across Latvian cities yield significantly more positive feedback than public ratings suggest.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the 15th Saeima elections take place?
The 15th Saeima elections are scheduled for the first Saturday of October.
How many citizens were interviewed for the “Latvijas fakti” survey?
The survey involved 1,058 Latvian citizens aged 18 to 74, selected through stratified random sampling via in-person and telephone interviews.
Which research center conducted the contrasting August poll commissioned by Latvian Public Media?
The contrasting poll was prepared by the research center “SKDS”.
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