Latin America is currently navigating a significant political shift as part of a “super-cycle” of 11 presidential elections between 2025 and 2027. According to Daniel Zovatto, president of Latam Asesoría Estratégica 360, this period represents one of the most consequential regional transitions in decades. The outcomes in major nations like Colombia, Brazil, and Peru are actively redefining the continent’s political, economic, and geopolitical landscape as voters increasingly pivot toward conservative platforms.
Why is the current political pendulum swinging toward the right?
The shift toward the right is largely a reaction to the failure of incumbent governments to deliver on core promises, according to Zovatto. Between 2023 and the present, 11 out of 14 presidential elections in the region were won by right-leaning candidates. While a “second pink tide” of left-wing governments defined the 2017–2022 period, these administrations often struggled with economic stagnation, corruption scandals, and an inability to curb rising crime rates. Despite the electoral trend, left-wing governments still control approximately 70% of Latin America’s GDP and hold power over 60% of its population, primarily due to the influence of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
How does the “bukelization” of security impact regional policy?
The “bukelization” of security—a model emphasizing mass incarceration and militarization popularized by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele—is increasingly viewed as a solution to rising criminal violence. However, Zovatto warns that this approach is difficult to export and carries significant risks. He points to Ecuador as a case study where reliance on megacrisels and street militarization has failed to suppress extortion and homicide rates. The model often requires a “Faustian bargain” where citizens sacrifice civil liberties for perceived safety, potentially leading to the erosion of the rule of law and democratic institutions.
What role does foreign policy play in new election cycles?
Future alignment with United States foreign policy is a primary concern for Washington, particularly regarding the influence of China in the region. According to Zovatto, conservative leaders like those emerging in the current cycle often align with U.S. priorities, such as the classification of criminal groups as terrorist organizations and the “Shield of the Americas” initiative. However, experts distinguish between strategic cooperation and total submission. The challenge for new administrations remains balancing these external alliances with the need for national autonomy.
Did you know?
Since 2018, the “punishment vote” has been the dominant trend in Latin American politics, with voters frequently ousting incumbent parties. This trend only began to stabilize in 2023, as seen in the re-election or continuation of governing parties in countries like Mexico, El Salvador, and Paraguay.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the shift to the right uniform across all Latin American countries?
No. While the electoral pendulum has favored the right since 2023, left-wing governments in Mexico, Uruguay, and Guatemala have successfully retained or gained power during the same window.
Why do voters in Latin America prefer “iron fist” security policies?
According to Zovatto, insecurity is currently the number one political risk in the region. Voters often perceive right-leaning candidates as more effective at managing crime and organized violence compared to their left-leaning counterparts.
Does the U.S. exert influence over these electoral shifts?
The U.S. monitors these elections closely, particularly to limit Chinese economic and political influence. While Washington often supports governments that align with its security doctrines, the internal success of these candidates relies heavily on their ability to address domestic economic and safety concerns.
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