Latvians vote in a parliamentary election on Saturday, October 3, 2026, that is likely to keep power in the hands of pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, although deep political fragmentation may complicate the formation of a government. Opinion polls put Kulbergs’ centrist United List ahead with about 14% of the vote, followed closely by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power party.
Across the Baltics, including NATO and European Union member Latvia, voters remain on edge following official warnings of potential Russian aggression and an increasing number of airspace incursions connected to Moscow’s war in Ukraine. While Russia has dismissed accusations that it plans to attack NATO as baseless, and Western officials indicate Moscow currently lacks the capability to launch a direct assault, security concerns have dominated the election campaign.
Security Pressures and Campaign Stakes in Riga
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, a 47-year-old businessman and amateur rally driver, came to power in May after the previous coalition collapsed over its handling of incidents involving stray military drones that flew undetected into Latvia. Although those drones were Ukrainian, officials blamed Russia for causing them to veer off course. Throughout the campaign, Kulbergs has pledged to increase anti-drone capabilities and maintain defense spending at 5% of gross domestic product, representing one of the highest funding levels within NATO.
“We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win,” Kulbergs told Reuters in an interview last month.
Conversely, pro-Kremlin political rivals argue that Latvia should halt all aid to Ukraine and focus instead on domestic cost-of-living issues, specifically within the country’s Russian-speaking minority. Julia Stepanenko, leader of the Sovereign Power party, told Reuters that her voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts, asserting that the war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it.
Did You Know? Latvia shares land borders with Russia and Belarus to the east, placing the nation of 1.9 million people directly along NATO’s eastern flank.
Parties Aim to Clear the Five Percent Threshold
Polling stations open at 8 a.m. local time and close at 8 p.m., with initial results anticipated within hours and final tallies expected after midnight. Voters are selecting 100 members of the Saeima, or parliament, for a four-year term. Surveys indicate that at least two additional political formations may clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament: the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First grouping and the left-leaning Progressives.
Kulbergs’ ability to construct a working coalition will depend heavily on final vote counts and how many parties manage to clear the 5% barrier. Analysts note that he might ultimately need to negotiate with Latvia First leader Ainars Slesers, a businessman whose recent rhetoric has shifted toward a more anti-Ukraine stance while attempting to court votes on both sides. According to Roberts Kits, a researcher at the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute, Slesers’ message contends that while the party condemns Russia’s invasion and stands with Ukraine, supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia’s economy.
Kulbergs Leads Broad Coalition of Multiple Parties
Kulbergs leads a broad coalition including the Greens and Farmers’ Union, which joined in 2023, and the National Alliance. Founded in 2010, the National Alliance promotes traditional values and a hardline stance toward Russia and the Russian minority in Latvia; it was part of ruling coalitions from 2019 to 2023 before joining Kulbergs this year. Also in the coalition is New Unity, the centre-right party that held the prime minister’s post until the government of Evika Silina collapsed in May 2026.
Representation of Russian Speakers
The election follows a period of collapse for parties representing Russian speakers, a group comprising nearly 35% of citizens who speak the language at home. Historically, these groups represented various ethnic backgrounds, though only citizens could vote. After independence in 1991, parties split over the Soviet past, citizenship, and language. The model of relying on Russian votes was established before the Harmony party, which was formed before the 1998 elections by socialists, Equal Rights, and the National Harmony Party, later joined by the Russian Party. While Harmony won 23 seats in 2018, it failed to clear the 5% threshold four years later. No current party has matched Harmony’s ability to unite diverse people around shared interests and the Russian language.
Voters Elect One Hundred Members for Four-Year Terms
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 8 p.m. on Saturday, October 3, 2026, with the first results expected within hours.
Opinion polls place Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist United List ahead with about 14% of the vote.
Voters are electing the 100 members of the Saeima, or parliament, for a four-year term.
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