Latvia’s Trade Landscape: A Shifting Balance in 2026
Latvia’s foreign trade turnover in January 2026 reached €3.32 billion, a 7.5% decrease compared to the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB). Exports fell by 6.6% to €1.58 billion, although imports decreased by 8.3% to €1.75 billion. Despite the overall decline, the trade balance showed a slight improvement, with exports accounting for 47.4% of total trade, up from 47.0% in January 2025.
Key Trends in Export Performance
While overall exports decreased, certain sectors experienced growth. Exports of transport vehicles and their equipment increased by €11.7 million (14.1%). However, significant declines were observed in mineral products (-€34 million, -15.3%), agricultural products (-€26 million, -21.5%), chemical industry products (-€13.6 million, -10.2%), and textile materials and articles (-€10.8 million, -22.1%).
Import Shifts and Sectoral Changes
On the import side, machinery, mechanical appliances, and electrical equipment saw an increase of €15.1 million (3.9%). Conversely, imports of base metals and their products decreased significantly (-€46.6 million, -31.6%), as did mineral products (-€43.9 million, -16.4%), plastics, rubber, and their products (-€19.9 million, -21.3%), and chemical industry products (-€19.4 million, -9.3%).
Regional Trade Dynamics
Lithuania remained Latvia’s primary export partner, accounting for 20% of total exports, followed by Estonia (12.5%), Germany (7.3%), and Sweden (5.9%). For imports, Lithuania was also the leading partner (20.4%), with Germany (10.5%), Poland (10.4%), and Estonia (10%) following closely behind.
The US Trade Relationship: A Notable Shift
A particularly striking change was the 59.8% decrease in exports to the United States, totaling €20.2 million. This decline was primarily driven by a substantial drop in the export of wood and wood products, and charcoal, falling by €13.9 million (85.2%). Simultaneously, imports from the US increased by 73.7% to €34 million, largely due to a surge in mineral product imports (€11.2 million).
Impact of Geopolitical Factors
Trade with Russia experienced a significant downturn. Exports to Russia decreased by 18.5% to €63.2 million, primarily due to a decline in textile exports. Imports from Russia plummeted by 91.3% to €3.3 million, largely attributed to a decrease in metal imports. Similarly, exports to Ukraine fell by 18.0% to €23.5 million, while imports decreased by 35.1% to €14.2 million.
Belarus Trade: Mixed Signals
In contrast to the trends with Russia and Ukraine, exports to Belarus increased by 41.6% to €6.3 million, driven by chemical industry product exports. However, imports from Belarus decreased sharply by 77.2% to €1.9 million, largely due to a decline in animal and vegetable fats and oils.
Looking Ahead: Potential Future Trends
The data from January 2026 suggests a period of adjustment for Latvia’s trade sector. Several factors are likely to shape future trends.
Increased EU Focus
The share of EU countries in Latvia’s total export value increased by 9.4 percentage points in January 2026, while the share in total import value decreased by 0.4 percentage points. This suggests a strengthening of trade ties within the European Union, potentially driven by ongoing economic integration and logistical advantages.
Diversification of Export Markets
The significant decline in exports to the US highlights the importance of diversifying export markets. Latvian businesses may increasingly focus on exploring opportunities in emerging economies and strengthening relationships with existing partners in the EU and beyond.
Supply Chain Resilience
The fluctuations in imports, particularly the decline in base metals and mineral products, underscore the need for greater supply chain resilience. Latvian companies may seek to diversify their sourcing strategies and build stronger relationships with suppliers to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical instability and global disruptions.
The Role of Technological Innovation
The increase in imports of machinery and mechanical appliances suggests a growing demand for advanced technologies in Latvia. This trend could drive further investment in automation, digitalization, and other innovative solutions to enhance productivity and competitiveness.
FAQ
Q: What is the current trade balance of Latvia?
A: As of January 2026, Latvia has a positive trade balance, with exports exceeding imports in trade with 109 partner countries.
Q: Which country is Latvia’s largest export partner?
A: Lithuania is currently Latvia’s largest export partner, accounting for 20% of total exports.
Q: What caused the decline in exports to the US?
A: The decline was primarily due to a significant drop in the export of wood and wood products, and charcoal.
Q: What is the CSB?
A: The CSB is the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, responsible for collecting and publishing statistical data.
Did you know? Latvia’s trade data is presented in actual prices, reflecting the value of goods in euros rather than their physical quantity.
Pro Tip: Latvian businesses should prioritize market research and diversification strategies to navigate the evolving global trade landscape.
Explore more insights into Latvia’s economic performance on the Central Statistical Bureau’s website.
