The Liberals and Nationals have announced they will preference One Nation ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe in the upcoming Farrer by-election. This strategic move comes as Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the contest for the southern Fresh South Wales seat.
Coalition Preference Strategy
According to a mock how-to-vote card published on candidate Raissa Butkowski’s website, the Liberals will list the Nationals’ Brad Robertson second. David Farley will be placed in fourth position, while Michelle Milthorpe is numbered ninth.
The Greens’ Richard Hendrie has been placed last on the Liberal ticket at number 12. The Nationals have indicated they will return the favor to the Liberals before encouraging their supporters to number Farley ahead of Milthorpe.
The ‘Teal’ Conflict and Funding
Nationals leader Matt Canavan stated on Facebook that the party is preferencing One Nation over Milthorpe because she is a “teal-backed candidate.” Canavan claimed she is supported by individuals who favor water buybacks and net zero.
While Milthorpe’s campaign receives support from the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle, she has attempted to distance herself from the city-based teal independent movement.
Political Backdrop and Controversies
The by-election was triggered by the retirement of long-serving MP Sussan Ley, who resigned after losing the Liberal party leadership to Angus Taylor in February. This race serves as the first federal electoral test for Pauline Hanson since One Nation’s polling began to rise last year.
The Coalition has recently intensified attacks on One Nation, highlighting the party’s decision to rehire convicted rapist Sean Black as a campaign manager. Pauline Hanson subsequently sacked Black, describing the Coalition’s scrutiny as “gutter politics.”
Potential Outcomes
The flow of preferences from the Liberals and Nationals could be crucial in determining the final winner of the May 9 race. Milthorpe has questioned the logic of the Liberal party preferencing a party that “seemingly wants to take them out.”
Recent Newspoll and Resolve polling indicates that support for One Nation has fallen slightly. This shift has led to speculation that the party’s rise may have peaked, though Matt Canavan noted that rebuilding trust with the public remains a long road.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Nationals preferencing One Nation over Michelle Milthorpe?
Nationals leader Matt Canavan stated the decision is because Milthorpe is a “teal-backed candidate” supported by people who favor net zero and water buybacks.
What triggered the Farrer by-election?
The by-election was triggered by the retirement of MP Sussan Ley, who quit parliament after losing the Liberal party leadership to Angus Taylor in February.
Who are the frontrunners in the Farrer contest?
Independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four-cornered race.
Do you believe preference deals between major parties accurately reflect the will of regional voters?
