Madagascar’s Spring Turned Russian Winter: From Uprising to Military Junta

Madagascar’s recent ouster of President Andry Rajoelina follows a familiar pattern across the continent, where youth-led protests against corrupt leaders are swiftly followed by military intervention and the arrival of Russian mercenaries, according to reporting by The Times.

Military Junta Welcomes Russian Paramilitaries After Rajoelina Flees

Last October, weeks of civil unrest over severe water and electricity shortages forced President Andry Rajoelina to flee the island nation. A colonel assumed power with promises of elections. Instead of scheduling a return to civilian rule, junta leader Colonel Michael Randrianaririna hosted Russian delegations and traveled to Moscow in February to meet President Vladimir Putin.

Geopolitical Realignment and the Fracturing of French Ties

Colonel Randrianaririna’s outreach to Moscow breaks decades of precedent wherein Malagasy leaders turned first to Paris, their former colonial power. According to Vircoulon, the regime operates with a “paranoid” fear of a counter-coup. This anxiety surfaced in April when prosecutors announced they had thwarted an alleged assassination plot against Randrianaririna involving one of his own colonels. These developments compound France’s widening loss of influence in former African colonies like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Madagascar recently expelled a French diplomat amid unsubstantiated rumors of French mercenaries operating on the island. Vircoulon characterizes current bilateral relations as defined by “mutual distrust,” creating an opening for the Kremlin.

Strategic Minerals and the Overhaul of Fuel Imports

Unlike war-torn regions in the Sahel, Madagascar presents Moscow with a different opportunity rich in critical resources and key trade routes. The island sits directly on the Mozambique Channel, which carries nearly a third of the world’s crude oil. Furthermore, it holds major deposits of graphite, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth minerals essential for electric vehicle batteries, electronics, and military hardware. This month, the parliament in Antananarivo handed control of fuel imports to a new state-owned enterprise, ending a 25-year system managed by firms such as TotalEnergies and Vitol. Analysts note this shift clears the path for importing sanctioned Russian oil, exposing local businesses to potential Western sanctions.

A History of Political Crises and Unfulfilled Revolutions

Madagascar has reeled from repeated political instability since gaining independence from France in 1960. Rajoelina himself initially seized power via a military-backed ouster following protests in 2009. He won two subsequent elections, most recently in 2023, before popular unrest forced him out once again. He currently lives in exile in Dubai. Protesters who celebrated his downfall now fear their revolution served the Kremlin’s strategic goals rather than democratic reform. This mirrors previous popular uprisings in Egypt in 2013 and Sudan in 2019, where military generals ostensibly backed protesters only to absorb the revolution.

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