President Marcos has directed the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to maintain focus on external defense operations amid ongoing security challenges in the West Philippine Sea. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. announced the directive on Tuesday, following the military’s first-semester command conference at Camp Aguinaldo. The government intends to recalibrate its security strategies without public disclosure, emphasizing that diplomatic efforts require military deterrence to be effective.
Why the government is shifting its defense posture
Defense Secretary Teodoro stated that the administration will continue to adjust its approach to evolving security challenges. According to Teodoro, relying solely on legal and diplomatic avenues risks leading to “accommodation and abuse.” He argued that the 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling provided a foundation for international support, but that this legal victory must be paired with “hardening and deterrence” to address China’s activities. Teodoro noted that China’s assertive behavior has expanded beyond the West Philippine Sea, affecting Japan and Pacific island nations, which has spurred other countries to bolster their own defense capabilities.
The status of the 2016 arbitral ruling
Former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, speaking at the National West Philippine Sea Summit on Wednesday, said the 2016 ruling fundamentally shifted global opinion by rejecting China’s expansive claims. While the decision garnered broader support for the Philippines from nations in Europe, North America, and the Indo-Pacific, Carpio noted that enforcement remains incomplete. Beijing continues to block the Philippines from exercising sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone, including the development of natural gas resources at Reed Bank. Regarding potential proposals to treat Scarborough Shoal as a “common fishing ground,” Carpio cautioned that such an arrangement would require formal agreements on fishing seasons, catch limits, and sustainable practices among claimant states.
Remaining Chinese structures at Scarborough Shoal
While China has removed a previously installed platform at Scarborough Shoal, the Philippine Coast Guard reports that other objects remain. Rear Adm. Jay Tarriela, the agency’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, stated that seven structures persist at the feature, including three buoys, three small towers suspected to be communication equipment, and a barrel-like object. Tarriela emphasized that removing only the platform is insufficient for environmental protection. Although Philippine authorities have not recently detected Chinese research vessels near the shoal, China Coast Guard and maritime militia ships maintain a persistent presence. Tarriela added that a cessation of harassment against Philippine vessels is necessary if China intends to demonstrate a genuine effort to ease regional tensions.
What happens next
The government is expected to continue its policy of not publicly detailing its strategic adjustments. If China continues to reject the 2016 ruling and maintains its presence at features like Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines may face a situation where it must weigh further legal options, such as seeking another arbitral ruling to codify fishing rules. The focus will remain on sustaining military readiness while balancing diplomatic efforts with the need for a credible deterrent posture in the West Philippine Sea.
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