Marine Le Pen faces a Tuesday appeals court verdict that will determine her eligibility for France’s next presidential election. A lower court previously sentenced the Rassemblement National (RN) leader to a five-year ban from public office and two years in prison over a European Parliament fake jobs scam.
Will Marine Le Pen be allowed to run for president?
Le Pen’s eligibility depends on whether the appeals court upholds the previous ruling of a five-year ban from public office. If the court maintains this sentence, she cannot compete in the first round of the presidential election scheduled for April 18th next year.
The case centers on allegations that the RN operated a system from 2004 to 2016 to divert European Parliament funds to pay staff working in France. Prosecutors allege Le Pen “professionalised” this embezzlement scheme, which was originally started by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Le Pen denies these claims, stating her party acted in “complete good faith.”
What happens if Le Pen is banned or detained?
If the court prevents her from campaigning—either through a ban from office or a sentence of house arrest with an ankle tag—Le Pen has stated she will hand leadership to Jordan Bardella. Bardella is 30 years old and currently serves as the leader of the Rassemblement National party.
Le Pen told crowds at a party event over the weekend, “We will never be discouraged, we will always fight.” She added last week, “I’m not scared. If I can run, I will — as long as I can campaign.”
How do the polls compare Le Pen and Jordan Bardella?
Recent opinion polls suggest the far right is likely to lead the first round of the next election. However, data on the second round is split between the two potential candidates:
- Jordan Bardella: Some polls show slightly better results for the 30-year-old lieutenant than for Le Pen.
- Marine Le Pen: A late May Harris Interactive Toluna survey of over 1,700 registered voters projected Le Pen winning the runoff against candidates like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Gabriel Attal, and Edouard Philippe.
Opponents suggest Le Pen is the more formidable candidate. Hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon described her as “very intelligent” and noted she is not an opponent one can “sneer at.” Conversely, some polls indicate former prime minister Edouard Philippe could win a runoff against the far right, as he also attracts right-wing voters.
The Legal Breakdown: Lower Court vs. Prosecution Demands
The legal battle involves Le Pen, the RN party, and 24 former European lawmakers, assistants, and accountants. The following figures outline the stakes of the appeal:
| Penalty Type | Lower Court Sentence | Prosecution’s Appeal Request |
|---|---|---|
| Public Office Ban | 5 Years | Maintain 5 Years |
| Prison Term | 2 Years (4 total, 2 suspended) | 4 Years (3 suspended) |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Marine Le Pen in court?
She is appealing a ruling regarding a “fake jobs” scam where European Parliament funds were allegedly used to pay party staff in France between 2004 and 2016.
When is the next French presidential election?
The first round of voting is scheduled for April 18th of next year.
Who is Jordan Bardella?
Bardella is the 30-year-old leader of the Rassemblement National and the designated successor should Le Pen be unable to run.
Do you think a change in leadership would help or hurt the Rassemblement National’s chances? Let us know in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for more political analysis.
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